I. Core high and low point anchoring (Fibonacci analysis main axis)
1. Initial rising wave segment: 0.01956→0.34 (establish previous trend anchor, calculate pullback support)
2. Pullback wave segment: 0.34→0.1338 (validate support strength, confirm low position acceptance)
3. Current rising wave segment: 0.1338→0.412 (breakthrough previous high point, judge trend continuity)
II. Core resistance/support calculation based on Fibonacci retracement
1. Major cycle strong resistance (determines the upper limit of the rise)
- Previous high point 0.34 has been broken, core focus on the extension resistance of the rising wave segment from 0.1338→0.412:
- 1.236 extension level: 0.47 (first strong resistance, core pressure for short-term rise)
- 1.382 extension level: 0.51 (second strongest resistance, requires increased volume to reach)
- Auxiliary anchoring of initial upward wave extension: 0.01956→0.34's 1.618 extension level 0.53 (ultimate resistance, very low probability)
2. Key Support (determines the bottom line of the decline, holding it will not collapse the trend)
- Primary Support: Previous high of 0.34 (turns into strong support after breaking through, must be supported upon pullback to this level)
- Secondary Support: 0.1338→0.412 pullback 0.382 level: 0.30 (second support, breaking below will lead to short-term oscillation)
- Key Support: 0.1338→0.412 pullback 0.618 level: 0.25 (breaking below directly denies upward trend, turning weak)
3. Market Conclusion: Short-term bullish continuation, mid-term focus on breaking 0.47 resistance
1. Short-term: Clearly bullish, 0.412 has broken previous high of 0.34, forming a trending rise, lower support at 0.34 is solid, no signal of breaking down, likely to test 0.47 resistance.
2. Mid-term: The watershed is at 0.47:
- Break above 0.47 and stabilize: Continue rising to 0.51-0.53, trend continues to strengthen;
- No breakthrough at 0.47 pullback: Prefer to look at 0.34 support, holding it still belongs to strong oscillation, breaking below 0.34 turns weak.
Operational Logic
- Bullish: Hold as the main strategy, no need to panic before 0.47, pullback to 0.34-0.35 can buy on dips;
- Bearish Trigger: Break below 0.34 and cannot quickly recover, decisively reduce positions to avoid pullbacks;
- Be cautious: Above 0.45 near 0.47 resistance, do not blindly chase rises, wait for breakthrough confirmation before increasing positions.
