The cryptocurrency market remains cautious, but some tokens are facing important tests this week. While prices are moving sideways, attention is focused on three altcoins to watch in the third week of December. Each of them is facing a concrete event, from changes in supply to network events and shifting owner behavior.

These setups can lead to rapid movements if buyers or sellers take control in the coming days.

Sei (SEI)

SEI has been under steady pressure towards the middle of December, which is also reflected in the price development. The token has fallen about 23% in the last month and more than 60% in the last three months, making the sentiment remain fragile while the market seeks direction.

At the time of writing, SEI is trading around $0.124, where the price is consolidating within a larger descending wedge pattern on the daily chart. This pattern often appears late in downturns when selling pressure eases and the price begins to gather. Currently, SEI hovers just above the lower boundary of this pattern, making the next few days crucial. This makes SEI one of the altcoins to watch.

Momentum indicators provide a mixed and interesting signal. Between December 5 and December 14, SEI made a lower low, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) made a higher low. RSI measures the strength of momentum, and this bullish divergence suggests that sellers may be losing control, even though the price remains weak.

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However, there is increased short-term risk due to SEI's planned Token Unlock on December 15. Around 55,56 million SEI – approximately 1.08% of the circulating supply – will enter the market. Token unlocks often lead to increased selling pressure in the short term, especially when market sentiment is cautious.

The key levels clearly define the setup. A clear break above $0.159 will signal that buyers are absorbing the increased supply from the unlock, potentially opening up for a rise towards higher resistance zones, including $0.193 and even higher.

On the downside, a fall of around 3% from current levels down to $0.120 increases the risk of further decline to the lower trend. This would weaken the case for bullish divergence.

Bittensor (TAO)

Bittensor's price is moving in a tight range ahead of the upcoming halving, providing a clear decision point. TAO has traded in a symmetrical triangle on the daily chart, indicating balance between buyers and sellers after several weeks of decline. This battle between buyers and sellers makes it one of the key altcoins to watch in the third week of December.

TAO is down about 15.5% over the last month and around 6.6% over the last seven days. Short-term weakness continues, but volatility has decreased, which often happens before larger movements. The structure reflects more uncertainty than pure bearish control.

The halving is the central backdrop. Bittensor's halving reduces token emissions, tightening new supply. Such events do not necessarily lead to an immediate rise but often act as a catalyst when the price is already compressed.

From a technical perspective, the first bullish trigger lies around $301. A daily close above this level will break the upper trendline of the triangle and signal increased strength. This opens up for a rise towards $321, followed by $396 if momentum continues and the market cooperates.

Downside risk persists. $277 is a critical support level. A fall below this weakens the structure and provides downside potential towards $255, with $199 as a deeper risk level if the market weakens further.

Aster (ASTER)

Aster stands out as one of the altcoins to watch in the third week of December due to a clear tug-of-war between whale wallets and the rest of the market.

On-chain data shows aggressive accumulation from whales heading into this week. Over the last seven days, whale wallets' ASTER holdings have increased by around 42.7 million tokens, from approximately 39.85 million to 82.54 million ASTER. This represents a 107% increase, signaling strong conviction among major players ahead of the third week of December.

At the same time, exchanges show a different trend. Balances on exchanges increased by 10.48%. This suggests possible selling from private investors even though whales are buying in.

The conflict between buyers and sellers is also visible on the chart. ASTER has corrected since November 19 but is now moving within a triangle pattern, reflecting uncertainty. At this stage, a hidden bullish divergence has formed. Between November 3 and December 14, the price made a higher low, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) made a lower low, which often indicates that selling pressure is starting to wane.

This is often associated with price increases. If this scenario plays out, the first level to watch is $0.94. A daily close above this will break out of the triangle resistance and pave the way towards $0.98, followed by a potential increase of 16% to $1.08 if momentum picks up and whale support persists.

On the downside, a loss of $0.88 will invalidate the bullish divergence and open up for a drop down to $0.81, giving control back to the sellers.