Regarding the next Chairman of the Federal Reserve, market expectations are clearly shifting.
The signals from the prediction market are very direct.
On Polymarket and Kalshi, the odds of former Federal Reserve governor Kevin Warsh have risen sharply, surpassing Kevin Hassett to become the current front-runner. Meanwhile, Hassett's odds have significantly declined from his previous absolute lead.
This change is not coincidental.
When asked about related issues, Trump himself clearly stated that Warsh “Yes, I think he is,” although he emphasized that there is more than one candidate, but the attitude is already clear enough. More importantly, JPMorgan CEO Dimon publicly supports Warsh, calling him “going to be a great chairman.” Such statements carry weight in the context of Federal Reserve candidate discussions.
In contrast, the issue with Hassett is not professional ability, but political distance.
According to media reports, he was originally seen as the “next-in-line,” but has recently been questioned due to his close relationship with Trump. The position of Federal Reserve Chairman is one where the market has always valued independence over stance. It is also in this context that the previously canceled candidate interviews have been rescheduled, and Warsh has already completed the relevant processes.
This round of changes indicates not who is “more favored,” but rather the system's self-correction.
In a phase where monetary policy is highly sensitive, credibility and independence are re-emphasizing their importance over closeness and labels.
What is truly worth observing next is not the odds themselves, but whether the market will price in the policy style of the “Warsh era” in advance. $BTC
