A financial news story from Japan stirred visible waves on the ETH one-hour chart. The numbers behind those markers hide the fate that every holder might face tonight.
1. First, look at the news:
On December 16th, Beijing time, data from the prediction platform Polymarket triggered a global market explosion: the probability of the Bank of Japan raising interest rates by 25 basis points this Friday soared to 96%, while the probability of maintaining interest rates unchanged fell to only 3%. This means the global 'last bastion of negative interest rates' may soon turn.
2. Look at the technical aspects again:
When the news came, ETH was at a delicate technical juncture. On the one-hour candlestick chart, the clearly marked numbers revealed the bottom lines for both bulls and bears.
Intraday pressure level 3060, intraday pullback pressure level 3180, key watershed for long and short positions at 2960, support below at 2890, final bottom defense line at 2780. The current MACD white and yellow lines have dropped below the 0 axis, forming a dead cross, and the MFI value is only 15.78, clearly in the oversold area.
Master Si Sheng's personal view: If it can't stabilize even at 2960-3000, it is highly likely to turn back, aiming for the first target below at 2890-2780, or even testing the bottom support at 2700. The larger trend on the daily level is still dominated by bears; if ETH stabilizes above 3000, it means the first line of defense for bears has been broken, and there is a greater chance for a second surge to challenge 3060 and 3180.
Retail investor operation suggestions:
If you have coins in hand now and the cost is relatively high: don't hold on stubbornly. If it rebounds but can't go above 2960-3000, that is the defensive point for reducing positions or stopping losses. Protecting the principal is always the priority.
If you want to enter the market now: definitely don't chase the highs! Be patient and wait for two opportunities: either wait for it to really stabilize at 3000, then enter on the right side to fight for a new high; or wait for it to drop to a level, such as stabilizing around 2890-2780 or even 2700, and then enter in batches when clear signs of stopping the decline appear.
Keep a calm mindset: don't let a single bullish candlestick change your faith. The news of Japan's interest rate hike is a long-term bearish signal, but changing the short-term trend requires time and greater buying power.
Master Si Sheng announces three waves of strategies every day in the village. If your position is not 5 million, please follow the real-time advice from Master Si Sheng in the village to avoid liquidation risks. The current market is unpredictable, and each villager has different positions, so please update the entry points announced by Master Si Sheng in the village in real-time!
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