Top Secret! Tonight, the non-farm data is coming, and the market will face a tremendous upheaval!

The market has already bet on a recession, and tonight's non-farm employment and unemployment rate data will be the key referees!

The non-farm employment population is expected to increase by only 40,000, far below the previous value of 150,000. If true, the momentum in the labor market will come to a sharp halt, creating the lowest growth rate of the year. The unemployment rate is expected to remain at a high level of 4.40%, exceeding 4% for several months, putting the soft landing narrative in jeopardy.

Behind these two sets of data, both bulls and bears are fiercely battling:

The bears firmly believe that the data will prove the economy is rapidly losing speed, and the Federal Reserve must quickly ease policies to save the situation.

The bulls claim that a slowdown in employment is a necessary path to reducing inflation, and the Federal Reserve cannot easily compromise.

Are your strategies ready for the next three scenarios?

Data is painfully disappointing: negative employment growth and soaring unemployment rate. Recession trading will completely dominate the market! Expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in 2025 will soar, the US dollar will plummet, and US treasury yields will crash, leaving the market in despair. Data meets expectations: employment increases by around 40,000, and the unemployment rate is 4.40%. A moderate slowdown script is confirmed, and the already digested expectations for interest rate cuts may be exhausted, leading to short-term market fluctuations that leave people confused. Surprise turnaround in data: employment returns to over 100,000, and the unemployment rate decreases. The narrative of economic non-landing resurfaces! Higher and longer interest rate expectations act like a bombshell, the US dollar soars, and risk assets come under pressure, leaving investors trembling.

Tonight, we are trading not just cold data, but also a collective anticipation of the market liquidity direction for the next six months. When this last piece of the macro puzzle falls into place, the market direction will undoubtedly be revealed! Are you ready?

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