On December 26, options with a nominal value of approximately $23.8 billion will be concentrated, covering quarterly options, annual options, and a large number of structured products. This means that BTC derivatives will face a 'concentrated pricing and repricing of risk exposure' at the end of the year, where prices may have been previously constrained by structure, but the uncertainty afterward may increase.
From the data, the two positions closest to the current BTC spot price have a large amount of OI focused on them, namely: 1. $85,000 put options: 14,674 BTC; this is clearly a bearish concentration area, considering the current corresponding BTC price is around 90,000, this is a protective put option that has moved from OTM to ITM. 2. $100,000 call options: 18,116 BTC; this is the largest single point OI in the entire structure, and the motivation behind this structure is the belief that BTC will have difficulty exceeding 100,000 before December 26; or if it rises, they are willing to deliver at 100,000. In terms of scale, this is not retail behavior, but rather large-scale long-term capital, most likely from ETF hedging, BTC treasury companies, large family offices, etc., institutions that hold BTC spot for the long term. It includes both buyers and sellers, but from the strike price position, forced structure, and the relationship with the bullish combination at the 100,000 strike price, the put options at the 85,000 strike price act as the 'active party', reflecting a strong demand for downside risk hedging at that price level. Similarly, the 100,000 strike price influences a large amount of bullish OI, which, in essence, does not mean 'the market is bullish up to here', but rather that long-term capital is willing to give up upward space above that price level, thereby seeking a certain panic and overall risk control. By buying puts below and selling calls above, the distribution of BTC returns is compressed within an affordable range. Given the highly formed premise, this 85,000-100,000 option corridor has a structural impact on BTC prices of 'upward pressure, downward buffer, and middle range fluctuations' before December 26.
