The battle for the main large chip area has begun, and this 4-hour K-line closing at 400.30 may signal a dramatic change in ZEC's short-term trend.
This latest 4-hour K-line chart clearly reveals the severe situation ZEC is currently facing. The current price is $400.30, which not only breaks below the Bollinger Bands' middle track of 407.58, but also runs closely along the lower track of 398.36, even briefly touching the psychological round number of 400.00 during the day.
The shape of this K-line is particularly concerning— the upper shadow is significantly longer than the body, and after reaching a maximum of 405.10, it was quickly pushed back, indicating that every rebound encountered resolute selling.
Technical analysis: Key indicators are sending alarms.
The Bollinger Bands show a tendency for contraction followed by an opening. The upper boundary is 416.79, the lower boundary is 398.36, with a bandwidth of about $18.43. The price is close to the lower boundary; if the next 4-hour candlestick closes below 398.36, the Bollinger Bands will confirm a downward opening, at which point the downward space may be quickly opened.
The MACD indicator shows subtle but key signals. The DIF value is 2.36, the DEA value is 1.88, and the MACD histogram value is 0.96. Although the DIF is still above the DEA, both absolute values are relatively small, and the height of the histogram indicates that bullish momentum is sharply declining. This position is very sensitive; if the DIF crosses below the DEA to form a death cross, it will be a clear bearish signal on the 4-hour chart.
Market behavior interpretation: Selling pressure is concentrated around 405.
From the market data, 405.10 constitutes today's absolute selling pressure zone. The market has repeatedly attempted to break through the 403-405 area but has failed each time, accumulating a large number of short-term sell orders at this position. The lower boundary of 400.00 provides temporary psychological support, but the strength of this support is being continuously tested.
The amplitude of 1.27% is relatively narrow, which usually isn't a sign of a trend reversal ending, but rather the calm before the storm. After a narrow range oscillation, once a direction is chosen, it is often accompanied by a rapid one-sided market.
My personal judgment and operational warning
Based on this latest chart, my view leans towards downside risk. This does not mean the long-term logic for ZEC has changed, but the short-term technical structure has already been damaged.
The key observation point is in the 398-400 range. If the price can hold this area over the next 2-3 4-hour candlesticks and re-establish above the middle boundary of 407.58, the short-term crisis may be averted. However, if the closing price falls below 398, the next support needs to be looked at around 386.10 (as indicated by the right arrow in the chart).
For contract traders, the current position is not suitable for shorting, as the price is near the lower boundary. A more rational approach is to wait for a rebound to the middle boundary (406-408) to look for structural shorting opportunities, or to wait for a clear breakthrough below 398 and act when the rebound shows weakness.
For spot investors, buying can start in batches below $400, but it is essential to control positions and set stop-losses. Remember, buying near the lower boundary of the Bollinger Bands bets on the mean reversion of market sentiment, but a risk control plan must be in place.
This chart tells us that the market is re-pricing ZEC's short-term value. All eyes are focused on the life line at 398.36. Will the desperate defense succeed, or will the frontline collapse completely? The next few trading periods will provide the answer.
Market opportunities are born in despair. When most people are scared off by this candlestick clinging to the lower boundary, the real opportunity may be brewing. Will you choose to be fearful at this moment, or prepare your chips for the next rise?
Pay attention to changes at key levels and leave your judgment in the comments—do you think ZEC can hold above $400? Follow me, and let's seek certainty amidst the volatility!
