1. Macro Environment & Risk Sentiment Overview
1.1 Interest Rate Curve and Yield & Liquidity Expectations & Central Bank Expectations
• US Treasury 10Y (Current Value): Approximately 4.15%–4.20% (Recently fluctuating in the range of 4.14–4.20%). FRED+1

• US Treasury 2Y (Current Value): Approximately 3.50%–3.52% (Short end continues to fluctuate around ~3.5%, with slight downward pressure on 12/16). FRED+1

• Liquidity / Central Bank Actions: The Federal Reserve has initiated Reserve Management Purchases (RMP) through an Implementation Note, launched by the New York Fed (Open Market Desk) to supplement reserves—initial month plan of approximately $40bn in short-term bond purchases paired with standing-repo / ON-RRP operations, becoming a core variable for short-end liquidity and market pricing. Federal Reserve System+1

1.2 Inflation & Employment / Growth
•Inflation is gradually falling but still above 2%; overall employment is stable, leading the Fed to maintain caution in the 'rate cut rhythm'—the market has priced in 'gradual rate cuts' but is more focused on the Fed's operational details and RMP execution specifics. Federal Reserve System+1

1.3 Stock Market and Risk Preference / Liquidity Preference
•Broad and defensive assets perform relatively steadily; growth/technology sectors are highly sensitive to news regarding H200 exports to China, with short-term volatility increasing; there are signs of funds flowing back to the money market/short bonds (position rebalancing driven by events). Reuters+1

1.4 Volatility / Fear Index & Crypto Market Sentiment
•VIX (Fear Index): Approximately 15–16 (recently maintained at mid-low levels but sensitive to news). FRED+1

•Crypto Fear & Greed (Sentiment): Market sentiment has fallen into the Fear / Extreme Fear range (third-party observation points vary from ~16–29, mainstream data sources show 'fear' as dominant). Alternative.me+1

Summary in one sentence: The RMP initiation has pushed 'short-end liquidity supply' to the forefront, becoming the main determinant of overnight/short-term interest rates and risk preferences; industry news (e.g., NVDA H200 exports to China) continues to drive technology and industry differentiation. New York Federal Reserve Bank+1
________________________________________

II. Core Asset Inventory (Stocks & Coins)
2.1 US Broad Market Index ETF: VOO & QQQM
•VOO (Vanguard S&P 500 ETF): Recent reference price around $626–631 (recent closing/intra-day range). http://Investing.com

•QQQM (Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF): Recent reference price around $254–257 (recent range). http://Investing.com

2.2 Main Crypto Assets: BTC / ETH / SOL / HYPE / BNB
•BTC (Bitcoin): On 12/16, there was a rapid drop in the early session/UTC, with multiple exchanges showing it had fallen to the ~86k–86.0k USD range (intra-day low at 85,9xx), with overall fluctuations that day between 85k–90k (leverage and liquidation being the main short-term reasons). Binance+1

•ETH (Ethereum): Recent price around $3.10k–3.14k (recently fluctuating). http://Investing.com

•SOL (Solana): Recent price around $128–134 (short-term range fluctuations). http://Investing.com

•HYPE (Niche Speculative Token): Market platforms show high volatility, priced in the low double digits (example $28–30), but with high depth and unlocking/contract risks, making it a highly speculative target.

•BNB (Binance Coin): On 12/16, prices showed a downward trend, with some market sites displaying ~$840–880 (short-term volatility). http://interactivecrypto.com

2.3 Technology / AI / Crypto Related Targets
•TSLA (Tesla): Recent value around $440–460 (range), with automotive demand, costs, and energy strategy as the main variables. Asia Times

•NVDA (NVIDIA): Reports surrounding H200 exports to China and capacity expansion remain the focus—the market is digesting the dual signals of 'allowing exports + supply/approval uncertainty', with stock prices highly sensitive to related news in the short term. Reuters+1

•META (Meta Platforms): Recent value around $640–655, with AI investment and advertising market conditions being key. IDN Financials

•GOOG (Alphabet): Recent value around $308–315, with advertising and AI applications being short-term drivers.

•CRCL (Circle Internet Group): Due to obtaining financial licenses/permissions in Abu Dhabi/ADGM, the market is focusing on the internationalization of USDC and regional settlement applications, with short-term stock prices driven by positive news. CoinDesk+1

•HOOD (Robinhood) / COIN (Coinbase): Brokerage/exchange stocks are influenced by trading volume, listings, and regional expansion news, with Coinbase's actions in India/internationalization seen as a medium to long-term positive. Yahoo Finance+1

2.4 Expected Assets (PreStocks)
•Anthropic / xAI / OpenAI PreStocks (Solana: Pren1FvF… / PreC1Kt…): Continue to belong to high Beta, with significant contract/custody and liquidity risks; if participating, be sure to verify contract addresses, custodians, and unlocking terms.

Summary in one sentence: Crypto is under short-term pressure (BTC rapid correction triggers leverage liquidation), broad ETFs are stable but technology is significantly disturbed by H200/policy news; PreStocks/HYPE remain highly speculative. Binance+1
________________________________________

III. Key Data Sections
3.1 VIX (Fear Index)
•VIX ≈ 15–16 (recently), at mid-low levels but reacts quickly to sudden news. FRED+1

3.2 US Treasury 10Y & 2Y
•10Y ≈ 4.15%–4.20%; 2Y ≈ 3.50%–3.52% (short-term curve relatively flat but highly sensitive to Fed operations and inflation expectations). Investing.com+1

3.3 US Dollar Index DXY
•DXY ≈ 98.3–98.5 (recently), with the dollar slightly fluctuating/strengthening within the news window. http://Investing.com

3.4 Liquidity (M2 & RRP / RMP)
•M2 (reference 2025-10): Approximately $22.30T (22,298.1bn) (monthly base reference). Reuters

•RRP / RMP: The New York Fed has released RMP execution details and launched its first-month plan on 12/12 (approximately $40bn), reshaping the distribution of short-end reserves and the structure of overnight/short-term interest rates. New York Federal Reserve Bank+1

3.5 Crypto Fear & Greed
•Index: Main sources are in the 'Fear / Extreme Fear' range, with values around ~16–29 (variations among different providers), reflecting the market's high caution and panic sentiment. Alternative.me+1

3.6 Bitcoin / Gold Ratio
•Gold (Spot) ≈ $4,300/oz (recently); BTC briefly fell below $86k → BTC/Gold approximately 20–21 (recent value), indicating that BTC still has a large volatility premium relative to gold, but the short-term ratio declines with BTC's fall. Investing.com+1

Summary in one sentence: Both data and operations point to 'short-end liquidity being actively managed'—the execution of RMP and industry/geopolitical news will continue to determine the short-term direction of interest rates, the dollar, and risk assets. Federal Reserve System+1
________________________________________

IV. Key News in the Past 24 Hours Top 10 (ranked by influence, summarized)
1.Bitcoin quickly dipped and briefly fell below $86k (early session on 12/16), triggering leverage liquidation and amplifying market panic sentiment. (Exchange data/market news). Binance+1

2.New York Fed / Fed: RMP (Reserve Management Purchases) has been initiated, arranging about $40bn of short-term bond purchases in the first month, making short-end liquidity management the market focus. (New York Fed / Fed Implementation Note). New York Federal Reserve Bank+1

3.NVIDIA's H200 export-related reports to China continue to ferment: US approvals coexist with Chinese reviews, and the market is focusing on H200 supply and order implementation (multiple Reuters/media reports). (Significant impact on NVDA and the semiconductor ecosystem). Reuters+1

4.Gold remains high (close to $4.3k/oz), with safe-haven funds partially flowing back amid macro and crypto volatility. http://Investing.com

http://5.Circle (CRCL) obtained financial licenses in Abu Dhabi ADGM, promoting the compliance and commercialization path of USDC in the Middle East. CoinDesk+1

6.Coinbase (COIN) and exchange/brokerage companies continue to bring short-term trading opportunities with their expansion processes and listings in India/Middle East. Yahoo Finance+1

7.Investment banks/institutions continue to discuss whether RMP is a 'technical expansion of the balance sheet' and its potential impact on the long-term monetary environment—divergent views in academia and the market. Business Insider+1

8.Niche crypto tokens (like HYPE) and PreSales activities on Solana are frequent, with increasing warnings about contract/liquidity risks.

9.VIX is at mid-low levels but responds significantly to sudden news (crypto flash crashes, H200 developments), requiring close tracking of short-term volatility indicators. FRED+1

10.Multiple media reports suggest that NVIDIA may increase H200 production capacity to meet Chinese demand, which, if orders materialize, will have a substantial impact on NVDA's short-term revenue and supply chain. Yahoo Finance+1
________________________________________

V. Recommended Strategies + Overall Summary
Recommended Strategies (Short-Medium Term / Risk Control Priority)
1.Maintain position flexibility and build positions in batches: In the window where RMP has just launched and industry news has not fully landed, it is recommended to gradually buy into broad (VOO) and Nasdaq (QQQM) while keeping cash buffers to cope with short-term volatility. Investing.com+1

2.Short-end/Hedging: Consider small allocations in short-term Treasury bonds/money market tools or gold ETFs to hedge overnight/short-end interest rate fluctuations and risk sentiment (RMP impacts the overnight market). New York Federal Reserve Bank

3.Technology/AI (NVDA, etc.): View NVDA's H200-related positives as opportunities to 'verify after news is in place'—if orders and approvals materialize, increase positions in batches; if regulation or approval fluctuates, prioritize stop-loss/reducing positions. Reuters

4.Crypto (BTC/ETH): Retain small positions in BTC/ETH as volatility exposure; strictly prohibit excessive use of leverage or perpetual contracts; for high-risk targets such as HYPE, PreStocks, and pre-sales on Solana, use only very small speculative positions and verify contracts/custody. Binance

5.Event-driven (CRCL/COIN/HOOD): Utilize compliance/listing/region expansion news for short-term trading, but for long-term holdings, focus on profit realization and regulatory path stabilization. CoinDesk+1

Events to Watch (Next Week)
•Continuous execution data of NY Fed RMP (purchase frequency, daily volume, and impact on overnight rates). New York Federal Reserve Bank

•Chinese approval and order confirmation for NVIDIA H200 (whether it forms continuous demand). Reuters

•Crypto market leverage/liquidation data and exchange liquidity (determining short-term direction for BTC/ETH). http://interactivecrypto.com

•Circle / Coinbase's compliance and commercial landing progress in the Middle East and India (affecting stablecoin internationalization and trading volume). CoinDesk+1

Overall Summary (in one sentence)
Under the dual influence of 'the Fed using RMP to supplement short-end reserves' and 'industry/geopolitical news (represented by NVDA H200) and crypto leverage events', the market is showing a short-term event-driven and liquidity redistribution pattern—prioritizing risk control, building positions in batches, and increasing positions after news confirmation as the main strategy; speculative PreStocks / small coins are limited to very small positions with strict verification of contracts and liquidity. Federal Reserve System+1
________________________________________

Main Sources (excerpt): Federal Reserve / New York Fed (Implementation Note & Desk statement). Reuters / Bloomberg / Reuters Special (NVDA H200). Binance / Yahoo Finance / Investing (BTC/ETH/ETF/bonds/USD data). http://Alternative.me & CoinGlass / Exchange quotes (Crypto Fear & Greed). CoinDesk / Yahoo Finance (Circle ADGM). All cited data are public data and media reports from December 12, 2025, to December 16, 2025. CoinDesk+4 Federal Reserve System+4 New York Federal Reserve Bank+4

#RMP #Fed #NVDA #BTC #CryptoFearAndGreed #VOO #QQQM #Circle #Gold #PreStocks