Now half of the people in the crypto circle are waiting for a 'Federal Reserve market rescue package,' constantly refreshing the dot plot to guess the timing of rate cuts, as if just one word from Powell could send the market soaring. But to be frank, this wave of expectations is purely self-PUA—what the Federal Reserve is thinking right now is not to rescue the market, but to 'air' it!
Let me splash some cold water on everyone: the so-called 'rate cut expectations' are more like a script performed by insiders; the Federal Reserve has never taken this bait from start to finish.
You can look up the recent public statements; the seven core executives of the Federal Reserve are collectively 'singing a different tune,' both openly and subtly saying that it's too early to talk about interest rate cuts. As for Powell's rhetoric, it's taken 'vagueness' to the extreme, only talking about 'potential future easing space' while never mentioning specific timelines. To put it bluntly, it's just to draw a pie in the sky for the market, telling you not to make reckless moves. More importantly, looking at the future dot plot, even seeing 2026-2027, there are only expectations for two rate cuts—this doesn't look like the beginning of an easing cycle at all. It's clearly conveying a signal: high interest rates will exist for a long time, so don't expect us to easily provide liquidity.
Some may ask: what if inflation rebounds, won't the Federal Reserve rescue the market? This question misses the point—right now, inflation is no longer the main contradiction in the eyes of the Federal Reserve.
Let's sort out the core goals of the Federal Reserve: stabilizing prices and maintaining employment. Now, the price increase has gradually retreated, and they themselves feel that inflationary pressures are manageable; the fluctuations in the financial markets, in their view, do not constitute 'systemic risk' at all, and at most are just the market's emotional outbursts. So the question arises: with no urgency for inflation and no pressure from systemic risks, why should the Federal Reserve lower interest rates for asset prices? There's zero motivation; it's purely unnecessary. If it were you, you wouldn't go looking for trouble to save a market that's 'just a bit temperamental', right?
Some people are using weak employment data as a 'market rescue signal'. Please, this wave of data is most likely a 'false signal'!
Previously, the White House shutdown directly led to missing employment data collection, with an estimated error scale of about 60,000 people. This missing data will not be recovered until January-February 2026. This gives the Federal Reserve a perfect 'delay excuse'—no matter how the market shouts, they can calmly say, 'There are errors in the data, let's wait and see.' In this case, trying to force the Federal Reserve to act based on employment data? That's just wishful thinking.
Having said this, my core viewpoint is already very clear. It may be somewhat counter-consensus, but this is my judgment based on years of market experience: the Federal Reserve currently has no intention of rescuing the market.
Unless a situation arises where the employment rate substantively declines for 2-3 consecutive times, and it can no longer be explained by 'statistical errors' or 'short-term fluctuations'. Only then might the Federal Reserve be forced to act. Until then, don’t expect comprehensive interest rate cuts, don’t expect them to proactively support the market, and don’t expect them to change policies because of market emotions. It can even be said that a hard landing for the market may be the real prerequisite for liquidity to return—after all, only when the market is hurt and confidence is completely destroyed, will subsequent easing make sense.
Back to the question we care most about: what does this mean for the US stock market and the crypto market?
First, it is important to clarify one point: the current market is definitely not a 'liquidity bull market', at most it is a product of 'expectation games + capital rotation'. The upcoming market will likely enter a phase of 'high-position back-and-forth, frequent false breakthroughs, and pinning becoming the norm'. Many friends must have experienced this recently—prices go up a bit and then are brought down, prices drop a bit and someone buys the dip, there is simply no clear trend.
Here's a reminder for everyone: real major trends never emerge when 'everyone is waiting for a market rescue'. Instead, they quietly arrive after the market is completely hopeless, no one dares to talk about bottom fishing, and confidence is completely destroyed. What the market currently lacks is not a rebound, but a thorough 'clearing'.
Lastly, let me say something from the heart: as someone who has been in the crypto space for so many years, I've seen too many cases of losses due to blindly following trends. What should be done now is not to guess every day whether the Federal Reserve will rescue the market, but to manage your positions well, be more observant and less active, and patiently wait for the real opportunities.
I will continue to track the Federal Reserve's policy direction and market data, and provide you with insights on the underlying logic and opportunities as soon as possible. If you find the practical insights I share to be valuable, follow me @链上标哥 so you don't get lost!
