Recently, the crypto market is simply like a tormenting little demon; the tug-of-war between bulls and bears is making people feel emo. Many friends are asking me whether they should take action, and my answer is just two words: Stay steady! Before understanding the temperament, blind operations are no different from blindly wandering in a maze, and the probability is like a meat bun hitting a dog—there's no return.
First, let's talk about the big pancake that everyone is concerned about. This wave of movement can be described as a 'repeated horizontal jump ceiling.' Do you remember the pullback on November 21? It directly dropped to the position of 8.06w, and I thought we were going to enter a downward mode, but instead, it turned around and started a rebound mode. Within a week, it surged to the daily life line resistance level. But just when it was about to break through, it stumbled at the last moment, not only failing to succeed but also directly entering a retreat mode. Even more astonishing were December 4 and the several times last week, where each time it touched the key positions of the life line resistance and the descending trend line, giving people the illusion that 'it was about to break through.' But in the end, each time was just a feint, and it turned around and dropped down, causing many who chased the rise to get caught clearly.
Looking at Ethereum, its recent trend compared to Bitcoin is simply that of a 'rebellious teenager'. On December 4, it touched the descending trend line; Bitcoin fell back and then lay flat, but Ethereum was different. After falling back, it surprisingly rebounded, charging all the way to the key position of 3430 on the weekly level - this position I had previously emphasized during the live broadcast is an important resistance level on the weekly chart, and reaching here is already considered an unexpected performance.
However, good times do not last long. Yesterday's pullback directly brought Ethereum back to reality. Yesterday morning it pulled back to the 3030 key support level I mentioned a couple of days ago, and there was a rebound at that time. Many old friends thought the support was effective and hurried to buy the dip. What happened? Last night directly came a 'breakdown kill', and the 3030 support level was broken just like that, leaving those who bought the dip in a shattered mindset. To be honest, seeing this wave of movement, I couldn't help but laugh; this market is afraid that everyone is making money.
From November 21 to now, the entire market has been in a 'no trend state', with neither clear bullish signals nor clear bearish signals, just oscillating back and forth in a range. In such market conditions, not to mention newbies, even I, an old hand who has been in the trenches for many years, find it difficult to operate. At this position, saying to go long, there are no effective breakthrough signals; who knows if it will be another round of false signals. Saying to go short, there are also no clear breakdown signals; what if catching the bottom is at halfway up the mountain? That would be a loss. In short, now is an awkward situation of 'neither here nor there', and when it's hard to distinguish between long and short, the most taboo is to enter blindly.
As a senior crypto analyst, my personal opinion is very clear: the current core operating strategy is 'wait'! Don't let the short-term fluctuations of the market lead you by the nose, and don't be envious just because you see others occasionally making some small money. The market is never short of opportunities; what's lacking is patience. What we need to do now is to control our hands and closely monitor the breakthrough situations at key positions - the daily lifeline resistance and descending trend line for Bitcoin, the 3030 support and 3430 resistance for Ethereum. Only when these key positions show clear breakthrough or breakdown signals can we follow the trend.
Finally, let me say something heartfelt to everyone. There are plenty of opportunities to make money in the crypto market, but the prerequisite is that you need to survive. In this volatile market, less trading means profit, while reckless trading means loss. Follow me @链上标哥 so you won't get lost!
