Last night before bed, I glanced at the computing power chart, thinking there was a bug in the data, as the global Bitcoin network's computing power plunged vertically by 30% within 48 hours, directly falling back to the levels before the 2024 halving. My friends who are miners in Xinjiang remained silent in the chat group, only a video of someone moving mining machines overnight circulated in a small group, with the caption: 'This time it's really over.'
A premeditated 'power crackdown'
Last month, a certain short video platform suddenly became popular with the 'Mine Wealth Challenge': in a dim factory, tens of thousands of ASIC miners' breathing lights flickered like a sea of stars, accompanied by the arrogant subtitle 'One day equals your annual salary'. These viral bombs successfully attracted the attention of certain departments. The 'gray power fortress' in Xinjiang, once tacitly accepted by the industry, was suddenly inspected without warning, leading to the collective power outage of over 400,000 mining machines.
Ironically, just three months ago, several overseas institutions reported that "China's share of computing power has quietly returned to 50%", unexpectedly this report became the best action guide. Local departments took joint action, specifically targeting mining farms in areas with low electricity prices, even the popular 'photovoltaic + energy storage' hybrid model from last year was completely eliminated, and those 'photovoltaic miners' in Qinghai who contracted abandoned photovoltaic power stations and made a quiet fortune with a electricity price of 0.05 yuan, this time even the energy storage cabinets were sealed.
▋ Difficulty adjustment is imminent, surviving miners welcome 'red envelope moment'
The Bitcoin network's resilience is now highlighted: after the sharp drop in computing power, the overall mining difficulty could not be adjusted immediately, and the remaining miners' unit computing power revenue will temporarily surge. Based on historical data, the daily income of miners who stay online in the next two weeks may jump by 40%-60%, which can be called a 'disaster bonus'.
However, behind this red envelope lies long-term hidden worries: Chinese miners once built a moat of computing power with the world's lowest electricity costs (0.03-0.35 yuan/kWh). If this capacity permanently exits, the average mining cost of the entire network will converge towards overseas mining farms (0.6-1.2 yuan/kWh). This means that the production cost line of Bitcoin will be reconstructed, and whether the secondary market price of $85,000 can be maintained will face a stress test.
▋ Global computing power map third reconstruction
In 2021, when China cleared out mining farms, computing power had migrated to Kazakhstan and Texas, USA; in 2023, Kazakhstan's electricity limitation policy caused some computing power to return to northwest China. After this incident in Xinjiang, North American mining farms are crazily purchasing transformers, and suddenly there is a lot of Chinese-language information seeking hosting positions in the Kazakh miners' group.
Interestingly, some oil-producing countries in the Middle East have started to quietly recruit mining farms, using natural gas flares to generate electricity for mining, with electricity costs compressed to below 0.2 yuan, and can also be called "emission reduction utilization". If in the future computing power is anchored to energy waste, the Bitcoin network may unexpectedly become a great ally of global environmental protection.
▋ Three realistic reminders for ordinary holders
There is no need to panic sell in the short term: the sharp drop in computing power does not change the Bitcoin economic model. Historically, after seven instances of more than 30% flash crashes in computing power, prices have recovered and reached new highs within three months.
Beware of the disappearance of the "China premium": in the past, Chinese low-cost electric miners could withstand selling pressure at lower cost lines, in the future, the psychological price level for miners to sell chips may rise.
A large number of second-hand S19 series mining machines are being sold at scrap iron prices, and these machines can still be profitable in electricity price areas below 0.4 yuan, which may give rise to new hidden mining models.
Last night I talked to a mining farm owner in Xinjiang, and the background noise was the metallic sound of dismantling equipment. He chuckled and said, "Back then it was said that 'blockchain should de-China', I didn't expect it to be realized in this way." Suddenly he lowered his voice: "By the way, do you know that Mongolia is recently bidding for diesel power generation projects? I have a new idea…"
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