I was brewing tea when my friend sent a screenshot of the news. I almost burned myself with a shake of my hand; it wasn't an accident, but a sense of absurdity that said, 'Indeed, this day has come.' Do you think regulation is a randomly dropped sword of Damocles? No, it's a metronome calculated with precision, striking the same account.
The recent 'magic three-ring' of local finance has been quite spectacular: state-owned enterprise balance sheets have become seesaws, IPOs have turned into escape routes, and even land can be packaged into financial building blocks. This is not about debt reduction; it's clearly a 'risk transfer creative competition.' The core message is: debts cannot rot in one's own backyard; a sufficiently large pool must be found to dilute them.
Veterans in the crypto circle understand this script: in 2017, when the leeks were excitedly looking at the white papers, the project parties were calculating the private placement costs; in 2021, when NFT avatars soared to sky-high prices, exchanges were adjusting withdrawal fees. Behind every 'policy sudden change', there hides an abacus that needs to be picked up.
Now this logic has been upgraded. When traditional asset packages get stuck, there will naturally be two moves: either bring new toys (like crypto assets) to the table to deal cards, or tighten the rules to redistribute the existing chips on the table. Direction north and south, the result is the same: someone has to pay for this feast.
So are you still studying K-line golden crosses and dead crosses? It’s better to look at the emotional cycles hidden in the (local finance execution reports). When a certain state-owned enterprise suddenly begins to visit the exchange intensively, or when the 'financial innovation pilot' documents are pushed late at night, perhaps it can sense the wind direction better than just staring at the market.
The real market rules are never in the technical aspects, in the minutes of the finance bureau meetings, in the fluctuations of city investment bond rates, or in the urgency of the phrase 'preventing financial risks' each time it appears. Ordinary people think of 'volatility' as something designed by others as a 'settlement interface'.
（Insert practical content suggestions here: for example, case studies on the correlation between annual regulatory cycles and liquidity shifts, abnormal chip distribution characteristics of mainstream assets during policy windows, how to identify real motives from seemingly negative news, etc., and be cautious to avoid sensitive word expressions）
A couple of days ago, a reader cried, 'Why am I always the one getting hurt?' I replied: Because you are seriously trading coins, while others are seriously calculating accounts. When the game rules are written in invisible ink, the one who finds the lemon juice first has already won half the game.
So next time you see a sudden policy, don’t rush to smash the keyboard. Pour a cup of tea, check which city's city investment bond rates have recently broken 8%, and think about why the 'state-owned capital listing green channel' has suddenly accelerated; perhaps it can tell you better than any technical indicators whether the next moment should be feared or greedy.
（Ending by opening the curtains to take a photo of the sunrise）It’s getting bright again, and both the traders and the finance directors have not slept all night. The difference is, one is looking at K-lines in front of the computer, and the other is drawing curves on documents. May we ultimately learn not to predict the wind direction, but to understand who is controlling the blower.
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