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The crypto market has recently encountered significant selling pressure, with Bitcoin's price retreating to around $85,600, while Ethereum has fallen below the critical level of $3,000, leading to a phase of digestion of previously accumulated gains. Under the impact of this correlation, crypto-related stocks are collectively under pressure, with Strategy and Circle's intraday declines nearing 7%, while leading exchange Coinbase's stock price has dropped over 5%, and mining companies like CLSK, HUT, and WULF have seen declines exceeding 10%. The high-risk asset sector is showing synchronized adjustment.
This round of decline is not driven by a single factor, but is the result of the resonance of macro policy turning points, changes in liquidity expectations, and market participants' risk reduction behaviors. Among these, the fermentation of the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike expectations has become the first 'domino' to leverage the whole situation. As a long-term underestimated variable in the global financial system, the impact logic of the yen's interest rate hike has a clear transmission path: Japan has maintained a zero interest rate or even negative interest rate policy for a long time, making the yen the core financing currency for global carry trades. The 'Mrs. Watanabe' group and international investment institutions borrow yen at low costs to invest in cryptocurrencies, U.S. stocks, and other high-yield assets, forming continuous liquidity support. The signal of a December interest rate hike released by Ueda Kazuo has pushed market interest rate hike expectations above 80%. Once the policy is implemented, the rise in yen financing costs and appreciation expectations will create dual pressures, forcing carry traders to massively close their positions, with crypto assets, as typical high-risk targets, being sold off first.