I took a look at the current market sentiment and couldn't help but want to talk about that inevitable four-year cycle. We all know that Bitcoin is like the changing of the seasons, reaching its peak about 18 months after the halving, and then spending almost a year to form a golden pit. Following this path, if we see a peak of $126,200 in October 2025, then around October 2026, the market will most likely be chilling to the bone.
I have experienced several cycles, and before each bottom arrives, the market is always filled with two emotions: the greed of veterans and the despair of newcomers. If you ask me where this bottom might be, I personally think the range of $30,000 to $60,000 is worth closely monitoring. The reasoning is not complicated: from the historical retracement magnitude and market psychological anchors, this area gathers the support of the previous bull market peak ($69,000), the technical level corresponding to a 77% drop (about $29,000), and the cost line of a large number of institutional holdings. In extreme cases, the price may briefly pierce $30,000, but for it to deeply break through, I think it would be quite difficult, as the current ecological foundation of Bitcoin and the depth of institutional participation are no longer comparable to 2022.
When others are fearful, I am greedy, but greed must have strategy.
When it really gets to that position, what will the market look like? I dare say that by then, the news you come across will most likely be 'Bitcoin is dead' or 'hash rate collapse' rhetoric. The fear index may drop to single digits, and there will be countless posts of desperate selling in the forums. But as an old investor, I want to remind you: this noise is actually the most contrarian indicator. Think back to the end of 2022 when Bitcoin fell below 16,000; how many people shouted 'zero'? And what happened? Six months later, the market started to heat up again.
So my plan is very clear:
Time window: I do not pursue buying at the lowest point, but rather aim to buy when panic spreads. From the fourth quarter of 2026 to early 2027, I will gradually position myself.
Price signal: As long as the price enters the 30,000-60,000 range, especially when it's close to the lower edge, I will start to take action.
Sentiment indicator: When mainstream media starts mocking Bitcoin, and even veteran community players fall silent, that's when it's time to act.
Why dare to reach out in the abyss?
Because behind the cycle is the cycle of human nature, and the evolution of technology and fundamentals never stops. The market in 2026 will see several key variables: the regulatory framework may become clearer (for example, the (Clarity Act) in the United States), the tokenization infrastructure will be established, and the narrative of AI + crypto will be more solid. These factors will plant the seeds for the next bull market.
As for the target? I am not greedy; if I can enter at a cost range of 30,000-60,000 and reach the peak of the cycle in 2029 (for example, 150,000-250,000 dollars), the potential for profit is already quite attractive. Of course, the premise for all this is not to use leverage and not to gamble with essential living funds—this is a lesson I learned from losing money.
Finally, I want to share a phrase with everyone: Bull markets are born in pessimism, grow in skepticism, and die in euphoria. The cold of 2026 may just be to welcome the summer of 2028. Let's observe as we go.
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