On the evening of December 16, 2025, Bitcoin showed a fluctuating and pressured trend, significantly influenced by non-farm payroll data. The specific market analysis is as follows:

1. Price Performance: Bitcoin's price fluctuated throughout the day, with several small rebounds after a dip, reaching a minimum of $85073. In the afternoon, a double bottom formation appeared near $85000, with the price quoted at $86127 around 6 PM. Over the previous 24 hours, the total network contract liquidation reached $270 million, with long positions liquidating at $230 million, resulting in significant losses for bulls.

2. Key Long and Short Points: Core support focuses on the $85000 - $85300 area. If the critical support at $84500 is breached, it is likely to accelerate the drop to the $82000 area; for resistance, focus first on the $86500 - $86600 area, which has twice become a rebound high point, with obvious selling pressure. Strong resistance is found in the recent dense trading area at $88000.

3. Technical Situation: The daily level shows a three consecutive bearish candles accelerating downward, with the EMA trend indicator spreading downward forming a bearish trend. After the MACD death cross, the fast and slow lines have widened, indicating strong bearish momentum. The 4-hour level has shown consecutive bearish candles. Although there was a rebound after dipping below the $85000 mark, forming a long lower shadow, and the market entering an extremely oversold area indicates a demand for rebound, the overall bearish dominance of the market structure has not changed.

4. Market and External Factors: Institutional holdings are diversified, and Bitcoin ETFs are in a state of net outflow, although long-term holders are making moves to buy on dips. The release of the U.S. non-farm payroll data this evening is key to determining market direction, combined with the divergence in Federal Reserve policy and the expectation of a Bank of Japan interest rate hike on December 19, which is likely to exacerbate price volatility and possibly trigger false breakout situations in the market.

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