A growing debate about whether cryptocurrencies are trapped in a tough phase or if something more fundamental has broken.
"It's time to acknowledge and admit that the cryptocurrency market is broken," said Ran Neuner, analyst and host of Crypto Banter.
The analyst highlighted an unprecedented disconnect between fundamentals and prices. According to Neuner, 2025 met all the requirements for a bull market:
▫️Abundant liquidity,
▫️A pro-cryptocurrency U.S. government,
▫️Spot ETFs (especially based on Bitcoin and Ethereum)
▫️Aggressive accumulation of Bitcoin by figures like Michael Saylor,
▫️Participation of nation-states and sovereign funds, and
▫️Macro assets like stocks and precious metals like gold and silver reach all-time highs.
"Even with all of the above," Neuner said, "we are ending 2025 lower and only 20% below where we were with Biden."
This suggests that traditional explanations are no longer valid. Theories about four-year cycles, trapped liquidity, or a favorable moment for cryptocurrencies increasingly seem like post hoc rationalizations rather than genuine answers.
According to Neuner, the result is a market with only two plausible paths forward:
▫️A hidden structural seller or mechanism is suppressing prices, or
▫️Cryptocurrencies are gearing up for what he calls "the mother of all recovery trades" as markets eventually return to equilibrium.
Market commentator Gordon Gekko, a popular user on X, countered that the pain is intentional and structural but not dysfunctional.
"Nothing is broken; this is how the market makers planned it. Confidence is at its lowest level in years; leveraged traders are losing everything. It’s not supposed to be easy; only the strong will be rewarded," he wrote.
This divide reflects a deeper shift in cryptocurrency behavior compared to previous cycles. During Trump's first term from 2017 to 2020, cryptocurrencies thrived in a regulatory vacuum.
Retail speculation dominated, leverage was uncontrolled, and reflexive momentum drove prices far beyond their fundamental value.
Instead, with Biden, the market became institutionalized. Regulation prioritizing execution limited risk-taking, while ETFs, custodians, and compliance frameworks transformed allocation and capital flow.
Ironically, many of the most anticipated tailwinds for cryptocurrencies arrived during this more restricted era:
▫️ETFs unlocked access, but primarily for Bitcoin
▫️Allocated institutions, but often hedged and mechanically rebalanced.
▫️Liquidity existed, but it was flowing into TradFi wrappers instead of into on-chain ecosystems.
This structural change has been especially painful for altcoins, with analysts and KOLs like Shanaka Anslem, among others, arguing that the unified cryptocurrency market no longer exists.
Instead, 2025 has divided into "two games":
▫️Institutional cryptocurrencies: Bitcoin, Ethereum, and ETFs with reduced volatility and longer time horizons, and
▫️Attention cryptocurrencies: where millions of tokens compete for fleeting liquidity and most collapse within days.
Capital no longer flows smoothly from Bitcoin to altcoins (known as altcoin season). It flows directly into the mandate it is designed to serve.
"…Your only options now: Invest in institutional cryptocurrencies with patience and macroeconomic knowledge. Or invest in cryptocurrencies with attention, speed, and infrastructure," Anslem wrote.
According to this opinion leader, holding altcoins on thesis for months is now the worst possible strategy.
"This is not about an early alt season. A market structure that no longer exists is expected," he added.
Perhaps this is the foundation of a trader's conviction: knowing where to look. Lisa Edwards supports this thesis, urging market participants to understand liquidity flows.
"Things change, cycles change, money moves in new ways. If you wait for the old alt season, you'll miss what is really happening right in front of you," he stated.
Quinten François agrees with this view, noting that the number of tokens by 2025 eclipses previous cycles. With over 11 million tokens in existence, the idea of a broad alt season like that of 2017 or 2021 may simply be obsolete.
Meanwhile, macroeconomic pressures continue to weigh on confidence. Nic Puckrin, an investment analyst and co-founder of Coin Bureau, points out that Bitcoin's drop towards its 100-week moving average (MA) reflects renewed fear of an artificial intelligence bubble, uncertainty over the future leadership of the Federal Reserve, and year-end sales due to tax losses.
No one knows if cryptocurrencies are broken or simply transforming, and investors should do their own research.
However, what is clear is that the expectations of the Trump era are colliding with the market structure of the Biden era, and the old manual no longer applies.
Discussions among economists and investors in major media suggest a brutal price reckoning or a violent recovery rebound that could define the post-institutional identity of cryptocurrencies.
