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The Impact of November 2025 Non-Farm Data on Cryptocurrency
Data Review: November non-farm employment increased by +64,000 people (slightly above expectations of +50,000), unemployment rate rose to 4.6% (the highest in four years), overall employment growth is weak but no signs of recession, affected by data distortion from government shutdown.
Short-term Market Reaction: After the data release (December 16), the cryptocurrency market experienced increased volatility, with Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) facing short-term pressure, and the dollar slightly weakening.
Risk assets are sensitive to macro data; weak employment usually benefits crypto, but this rebound is limited and did not trigger significant increases.

Impact on Federal Reserve Policy:
Strengthens signals of labor market cooling, slightly raising expectations for interest rate cuts in 2026.
However, the Federal Reserve completed its third interest rate cut of the year on December 10 (to 3.5%-3.75%) and signaled a subsequent slowdown, with data not significantly altering the path.

Overall Impact on Cryptocurrency:
Neutral to slightly positive: Weak employment supports the 'soft landing' narrative, potential easing may benefit risk asset inflows into crypto.
Historical Pattern: Weak non-farm data often boosts $BTC , but this time due to data distortion and the Federal Reserve's already 'hawkish rate cuts', the increase is limited.
Potential Risks: If subsequent data confirms cooling, accelerated rate cuts could push BTC to higher levels; conversely, strong data would suppress.

Currently, the cryptocurrency market is still dominated by macro factors; it is recommended to pay attention to subsequent CPI and Federal Reserve statements.