Wednesday Jin Xin Gold Morning Report: Non-farm Data Shows Mixed Results, Gold Price Fluctuates Around 4300

Key Points

Yesterday, the delayed U.S. non-farm data for October-November presented a 'split' situation, with spot gold first rising to $4334.52 per ounce, then plunging over $30, ultimately oscillating around the key level of $4300. This morning, it maintained a narrow range between $4302-4310, with significant divergence between bulls and bears.

Macroeconomic Data Interpretation

- Non-farm data shows mixed results: In November, the non-farm employment population increased by 64,000, better than the expected 51,000, but the October data was significantly revised down to a decrease of 105,000; the unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, the highest since September 2021, while the average hourly wage in November grew only 0.1% month-over-month, the lowest growth since March 2024.

- Policy expectations slightly adjusted: The data confirms a moderate slowdown in the U.S. labor market, with the CME FedWatch tool showing a rise in the probability of a rate cut in January from 24.4% to 26.6%. The market still expects a cumulative rate cut of about 59 basis points by 2026, with a low interest rate environment supporting gold prices in the long term.

- Consumer data shows divergence: The core retail sales in October grew 0.8% month-over-month, far exceeding expectations, indicating consumer resilience and temporarily alleviating concerns about economic deterioration, limiting the Federal Reserve's scope for urgent easing.

Technical Analysis

- Key price levels: Resistance above at $4320 (short-term strong-weak divide), $4350 (double top pressure level); support below at $4300 (psychological level), $4285 (yesterday's low), $4270 (key support range).

- Trend judgment: The gold price is currently in a high-level oscillation pattern, with a clear double top formation around $4350. Caution is advised for direction selection after oscillation before breaking through key ranges.

Trading Strategy Suggestions

- Short-term operations: If it stabilizes above $4300 and breaks above $4320 during the day, a light position can be taken to pursue long positions aiming for $4330-4340; if it breaks below $4300 or fails to reach $4340, a short position can be taken with a target of $4280-4270.

- Risk control: After the non-farm data, market volatility increases; strictly control positions with stop-loss set outside the key support/resistance levels by 3-5 points; data noise still exists, avoid heavy bets on a single direction.

- Focus points: Today, pay close attention to the oscillation rhythm of the U.S. dollar index, and subsequently track U.S. CPI and PCE data to further confirm inflation and policy direction.