#美联储降息后政策转鹰市场抛售承压 $BTC After the Federal Reserve cut interest rates, the market actually experienced a sell-off, and when the policy turned hawkish, the market continued to face pressure. These two situations stem from changes in liquidity expectations and risk appetite, with the specific reasons as follows:
1. Sell-off triggered by interest rate cuts puts pressure on the market: This interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve is considered a 'hawkish cut,' which did not provide the market with easing expectations. On one hand, the dot plot maintains the forecast of only one rate cut in 2026, and Powell has also hinted that rate cuts may be paused. This tightening expectation of subsequent easing policies has made investors who entered the market due to rate cut expectations feel that profit margins have peaked, leading them to sell off crypto assets early to lock in profits. On the other hand, the Federal Reserve's operations such as bond purchases after this rate cut are primarily aimed at stabilizing liquidity in the banking system rather than stimulating risk assets, and the crypto market has not received sustained capital inflows for support. Moreover, the crypto market had already digested the positive effects of the rate cut, and after the rate cut was implemented, the trading logic of 'buying the expectation and selling the fact' came into effect, exacerbated by concerns over the AI bubble and other factors, further amplifying the sell-off and putting pressure on the crypto market.
2. The shift to a hawkish stance directly suppresses the market and causes pressure: The Federal Reserve's hawkish shift likely means a tightening of liquidity and an increase in funding costs. Historical data shows that the price of Bitcoin has had a staggering -90% negative correlation with the Federal Reserve's interest rates, and hawkish signals will directly impact high-volatility risk assets like crypto. At this time, institutions may be forced to reduce leveraged positions in crypto assets due to increased funding costs, and crypto ETFs may also experience net outflows of capital, leading to a sharp increase in market selling pressure without crucial capital support. Meanwhile, the hawkish stance will lower overall market risk appetite, and retail investors will follow suit and flee. Additionally, the correlation between crypto assets and risk assets like US stocks is continuously rising; when US stocks decline under the burden of hawkish policies, the crypto market will also face pressure.
