【Core View】: The macro trend remains dominated by bears, but the short-term is stuck in choppy mud.

ETH price action remains extremely weak, suffocated by moving averages on the Long and Medium-term timeframes with a complete bearish alignment. However, the Short-term (1H) has entered a directionless consolidation zone. Patience is key now; don't waste ammo during this "junk time." Waiting for a bounce to resistance to initiate high-altitude shorts is the highest probability strategy.

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📊 Long-Term Trend: Medium Bearish (1D)

Analysis:

Daily close continues to be suppressed below EMA9 and EMA21, and is trading under the key level of 3,177.69. Momentum is bearish. This is a standard bearish continuation pattern with heavy overhead resistance.

【1D Swing Strategy】

• Key Action: Patiently wait for price to rally into the resistance zone to build short positions. Do not chase lows.

• Invalidation Level: 3,731.80 (Bearish scenario invalid if price closes above this).

🛑 Short Setup:

• Sell on Strength (Limit Order): 3,177.69 ～ 3,731.80 (Recommend 70% allocation)

• Chase the Breakdown: Below 2,437.14 (Recommend 30% allocation)

• Take Profit (TP): 2,437.14 / 1,883.03

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📉 Medium-Term Trend: Medium Bearish (4H)

Analysis:

The 4H structure remains ugly. Price is below the EMA ribbons and under 3,178.46. The bearish trend is extending, and any bounce appears feeble.

【4H Strategy】

• Invalidation Level: 3,332.48 (Scenario invalid if closed above).

🛑 Short Setup:

• Sell on Strength (Limit Order): 3,178.46 ～ 3,332.48 (Patience required, 60% allocation)

• Chase the Breakdown: Below 2,909.48 (40% allocation)

• Take Profit (TP): 2,755.46 / 2,486.48

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⚡ Short-Term Trend: Consolidation (1H)

Analysis:

The short-term has entered an awkward consolidation phase, with price stuck chopping around 2,940.06. Neither bulls nor bears have made a clear statement here. It's easy to get chopped up trading in this zone.

【1H Scalp Strategy】

• Key Action: Trade the range (buy low, sell high) or simply wait on the sidelines for a confirmed breakout direction.

• Range Observation: 2,898.24 ～ 3,004.11

🛑 Setup:

• Range Testing: Small positions at range edges (Recommend 50% allocation).

• Breakout Confirmation: Only switch bias and add size (50% allocation) if price effectively closes below 2,898.24 or above 3,004.11.

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📝 Summary & Action Plan

ETH is currently "Macro Bear, Micro Chop." The primary strategy should be selling high, with range trading as a secondary option.

1. If you are Short: The long-term trend is unchanged. Hold positions and trail stop losses based on the 4H defensive level (3,332.48).

2. If you are in Cash:

• Conservative: Ignore the 1H chop. Patiently wait for price to rally to near 3,178 and show resistance before entering shorts.

• Aggressive: Lightly trade the range (2,898 - 3,004) on the 1H chart, buying support and selling resistance, but set strict stops to prevent getting caught in a sudden breakout.