🌪️ 1. Breaking News: Trump's "Federal Reserve Leadership Change" Plan
Last night, Trump directly named—Kevin Walsh as the "top candidate" for the next Federal Reserve chair on social media! More importantly, Trump emphasized that Walsh is "on the same page" with him regarding interest rate cuts.
Why is this news so significant?
Sensitive Timing: With only one year left until the 2026 election, Trump's timing to leak this information clearly conveys a "loose monetary policy expectation" to the market;
Candidate Background: Walsh served as a Federal Reserve Governor (2006-2011), has a Wall Street background, and is traditionally seen as "hawkish", but if he truly aligns with Trump on interest rate cuts, the policy shift may exceed expectations;
Market pricing: Once the news was released, the dollar index fell 0.3%, and Bitcoin rebounded from $87,000 to above $88,000—markets have already begun to price in a "dovish Federal Reserve."
💼 2. Kevin Waller: A Shift from "Hawkish" to "Trump Ally"?
To understand Waller's potential influence, first look at his policy stance:
1. Historical Hawkish Label
In 2010, he publicly criticized Bernanke's QE2 (the second round of quantitative easing), believing that inflation risks were underestimated;
In 2023, he wrote that "the Federal Reserve should maintain high interest rates for a longer period," consistent with Powell's "higher for longer."
2. But reality may reverse
Political pressure: If Trump is elected, he will demand interest rate cuts to stimulate the economy; Waller, as a "political appointee," may find it hard to be fully independent;
Market expectations: The current unemployment rate has risen to 4.6%, inflation has dropped to 2.8%, creating room for interest rate cuts;
Historical lesson: In 2018, Trump publicly pressured Powell to cut interest rates, and the Federal Reserve eventually pivoted in 2019—political pressure on monetary policy cannot be ignored.
My judgment: If Waller comes to power, he may initially maintain a "hawkish" stance to build credibility, but in the medium term, he is likely to align with Trump's easing demands.
📈 3. Impact on the crypto market: How are interest rate cut expectations priced?
1. Liquidity expectations are heating up
Weakening dollar: Dovish Federal Reserve = dollar depreciation, beneficial for anti-inflation assets like Bitcoin;
Decreasing cost of funds: Interest rate cuts reduce borrowing costs, making institutions more willing to allocate high-risk assets (like crypto ETFs);
Historical pattern: During the 2019 Federal Reserve interest rate cut cycle, Bitcoin rose from $3,800 to $69,000 (an 18-fold increase).
2. Institutional Allocation Logic
Bitcoin ETF: If interest rate cut expectations strengthen, Grayscale, BlackRock, and other ETFs may see net inflows reappear;
Ethereum upgrade: Fusaka upgrade + dual benefits of interest rate cuts, ETH/BTC exchange rate is expected to rebound from 0.035 to above 0.04;
Altcoin rotation: During liquidity easing cycles, small-cap coins usually outperform the market.
3. Technical Signal
Bitcoin: Currently fluctuating in the range of $85,000 to $90,000; if it stabilizes at $92,000, the target is $100,000;
Key support: $82,000 (whale cost zone); if broken, beware of deeper corrections;
Time window: Before the Federal Reserve's decision in January 2026, expectations for interest rate cuts will continue to ferment.
⚠️ 4. Risk Warning: Don't be swept away by the "rate cut euphoria"
The market may be overly optimistic:
Trump may not be elected: If Biden is re-elected, Powell may remain, leading to stronger policy continuity;
Waller's "hawkish" background: Even if paired with interest rate cuts, the pace may be slower than market expectations;
External risks: The Bank of Japan raising interest rates, geopolitical conflicts, etc., may suppress risk appetite.
Operational suggestions:
Core positions: Bitcoin/Ethereum should account for no less than 50%, serving as ballast;
Gradual allocation: Increase positions by 5% each time there is a 5% drop, to avoid chasing highs;
Stop-loss discipline: Reduce positions if falling below $82,000 to guard against black swan events.
💡 5. The Ultimate Reminder for Veteran Investors: The "Survival Rules" During an Interest Rate Cut Cycle
Historical experience:
During the 2019 interest rate cut cycle: Bitcoin rose from $3,800 to $69,000, but experienced multiple 30%+ corrections in between;
Key lesson: Hold core positions, ignore short-term noise; every pullback during an interest rate cut cycle is an opportunity to enter.
Current strategy:
Short-term: Focus on the 92,000 breakthrough signal; if it stabilizes with volume, consider increasing positions;
Medium-term: Expectations for interest rate cuts continue to ferment, with a target of 120,000 to 150,000 by 2026;
Long-term: Bitcoin halving cycle + interest rate cut cycle resonance, expected to challenge 200,000 in 2027.
💬 Interaction time: Are you a "rate cut faction" or a "wait-and-see faction"?
I believe: Trump's "change of leadership" signal is a catalyst for interest rate cut expectations, but actual implementation will depend on the election results. The current range of $85,000 to $90,000 has a safety margin and can be gradually allocated.
What do you think?
Support "early rate cuts, the current price is the bottom"?
Or firmly believe "political noise, the market will disprove it"?
If you currently feel helpless and confused in trading, and want to learn more about the crypto space and cutting-edge information, follow me@Square-Creator-aa01419647e18
