The market at 4:30 AM last night was like a salted fish, with ETH stuck at 2945, not moving at all, lying flat around 2940 for over a day! Don’t tell me to wait until the market is clear to take action; by the time you see the direction, the meat will have been chewed clean by others—this industry’s essence is 'dare to get on the bus, can endure', and leave the rest to the market to ferment!
First, let me synchronize the core data for friends who haven't stayed up all night watching the market: as of the time of writing, the daily line reached a maximum of 2980 and a minimum of 2870, without any extreme fluctuations, but the details are full of signals. Focus on the EMA trend indicator, which is still in a contraction state, indicating that both bulls and bears are still 'arm wrestling' without a clear winner. Interestingly, after the K-line broke below the EMA, it just encountered resistance and fell back at the Fibonacci golden ratio position of 0.618. How strong is the support below? Let's put it this way, the probability of breaking through in the short term is lower than winning the lottery; it is very likely to first pull back and gather strength, then look for opportunities to break through.
Looking at two key auxiliary indicators: MACD's continuous reduction in volume, which is a typical signal of 'the bears are losing strength'. Next, it is very likely to enter a phase of reduced trading volume; KDJ has been expanding downwards for more than a week, and the downtrend has long lost its initial intensity, resembling a sense of 'a strong bow at its end'. The lower Bollinger Band can focus on the position of 2830, which can be considered the 'floor price' of the current trading range. Considering the overall trend, the market has already dropped to the bottom of the range, making it very difficult to probe further down. As long as an effective upward signal appears, holding is the optimal solution.
Some friends may ask: will the four-hour line form a U-shaped reversal and directly rush back to 3170? Objectively speaking, the probability is indeed not small, but we cannot be blindly optimistic; we must grasp the key resistance levels. The first level is around 3030, which is like the 'first line of defense'. If it can't break through, then the short-term upward trend will basically cool down; if it can stabilize above it, then the following space will open up. The MACD on the four-hour line has already shown a bottom divergence, and it is a reduced volume upward, which is an important sign of reversal; the lower Bollinger Band support is at 2880, and the upper band pressure is at 3200. Coincidentally, the middle band is right at the key position of 3030, so the core idea is very clear: as long as the upward movement is effective, hold on, defend well, set good stop-losses, don't be greedy or panic.
Now, let me share some practical insights, all short-term references I’ve summarized from years of watching the market (real-time market data will be synchronized in the internal community, old fans know where to find it):
Upward trial trading range: 2850-2900, defensive position 2800, stop-loss 50 points, first target looking at 2950-3000; if it can break through 3000, directly look at 3050-3100;
Downward trial trading range: 3040-3090, defensive position 3140, stop-loss 50 points, first target looking at 2980-2930; if it breaks, it can be chased down to 2880-2830;
I must emphasize: there is a delay in article publication, the market changes rapidly, and specific operations must rely on real-time market data; don’t rigidly stick to static strategies. After all, in this market, surviving is more important than making quick money; risk must always come first!
To be honest, at this point, what matters is patience and vision. The bearish power has clearly weakened, and the reversal may happen in an instant. Follow me @链上标哥 , don’t lose your way! Every day I will take you through the most practical market logic, and real-time operational signals will also be synchronized in the community. Friends who want to keep up with the rhythm can directly comment 'get on the bus' in the comment area, and let's find opportunities in the fluctuations together!
