Conclusion: High probability of short-term breakeven opportunity (cost is approximately +13% from $0.0112, current price ≈ $0.0099, 12/17), but strict rebound strategy must be executed; long-term breakout is not guaranteed, requiring a triple resonance of Polkadot ecosystem, macro liquidity, and project fundamentals, should not hold blindly for long, should allocate small amounts and set exit conditions.
1. Short-term breakeven: High probability of execution (1–3 days)
- Key signals on the chart
- Price and indicators: Current price ≈ $0.0099, 7-day drop of about 28%, RSI <30 oversold, with rebound momentum; support at $0.0102, resistance at $0.0107, easily breaking the $0.0112 cost level after stabilizing above resistance.
- Pump logic: No mainstream contracts for shorting, the market maker can only rely on spot to pump; circulating market cap ≈ $11.5M, 24h volume ≈ $2.78M, concentrated chips, small funds can trigger a rebound; however, heavy selling pressure in the last 7 days, must break through volume for stability.
- Risk points: OKX, Bitget, and others have delisted/will delist ACA trading pairs, liquidity is tightening, selling pressure may worsen, beware of volume-less rebounds.
- Trading rescue steps (priority on rescue)
1. Entry and holding: Hold after stabilizing above $0.0107, target $0.0112 for breakeven and then reduce positions/liquidate, do not be greedy.
2. Stop-loss: Immediately stop-loss if it drops below $0.0102 support to avoid deep losses, wait for stabilization before considering re-entry.
3. Cost reduction through trading: If the rebound is weak, buy low between $0.0098–$0.0105, sell high between $0.0107–$0.0110, repeatedly reduce costs.
2. Long-term breakout: Conditions are harsh, requiring triple resonance (6–24 months)
- Core breakout conditions (none can be missed)
1. Polkadot ecosystem breakout: Cross-chain DeFi becomes the narrative of the bull market, Acala as the core of Polkadot DeFi (aUSD, LDOT) must be re-evaluated for value, bringing Beta + Alpha returns.
2. Macro liquidity easing: In 2026, the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates, funds flow back to altcoins, low market cap coins are easily speculated.
3. Improvement in project fundamentals: Increase users and revenue of applications like aUSD, LDOT, community enthusiasm rebounds, avoid further delisting from exchanges. $ACA $ETH
