🔍 What Is the Great Divergence?
A divergence happens when:
Price keeps pushing one way
Momentum, volume, or participation moves the opposite way
The “great” part means it’s persistent, multi-timeframe, and macro-relevant.
📉 Where the Divergence Is Showing in BTC
1️⃣ Price vs Momentum
BTC has made higher highs
RSI / MACD on daily & weekly charts show lower highs
➡️ Classic bearish divergence
Momentum is weakening even as price stays elevated.
2️⃣ Price vs Volume
Rallies are happening on declining spot volume
ETF inflows have slowed, not accelerated
➡️ Price is rising, but conviction is fading
3️⃣ BTC vs Altcoins
Bitcoin dominance remains high
Many large-cap alts (including XRP, ETH) haven’t confirmed BTC’s strength
➡️ This suggests capital preservation, not risk-on speculation
4️⃣ On-Chain vs Market Price
Long-term holders are distributing into strength
New demand isn’t overwhelming supply
➡️ Smart money is cautious, not euphori
🧠 What This Usually Leads To
Historically, major divergences resolve in one of two ways:
🔴 Scenario A: Correction / Reset (More Likely Short-Term)
BTC revisits strong support zones
Momentum resets
Market flushes leverage
📍 Typical targets traders watch:
Prior range support
High-liquidity zones
0.382–0.5 Fibonacci retracements
🟢 Scenario B: Sideways Compression
Price doesn’t crash
Time corrects instead of price
Breakout comes after indicators reset
This often frustrates both bulls and bears.
⚠️ Why This Matters Now
When divergence stretches too long:
Breaks become violent
Stops get hunted
Narratives flip fast
That’s why you’re seeing:
Conflicting headlines
Extreme predictions
Sudden sentiment shifts
🧩 Big Picture Takeaway
The Great Divergence doesn’t mean “the bull market is over.”
It means:
> 📌 This phase is about risk management, not blind conviction.
The next confirmed move will come when:
Momentum re-aligns with price
Volume confirms direction
BTC dominance either breaks down or accelerates.
