Family, urgent reminder!
Stop dozing off while staring at that fluctuating sideways market! The real eye of the storm may be just after tonight, two super signals have already lit up the red light, and this big ship called ETH may face a big wave. Will it surge up or crash down?
Mig is opening up his heart to you, explaining it clearly and thoroughly!
The news isn't 'the wolf is coming', it's a 'nuclear-level' warning!
Many people think the Bank of Japan's rate hike has nothing to do with the crypto space? That's a big mistake! This time is different!
Polymarket predicts a 98% probability of a rate hike in December, almost a certainty. The critical time point is December 19. Why is this a nuclear bomb?
Global capital 'pump' starts: Japan is the last major economy to maintain negative interest rates. Once it raises rates, it means the last 'cheap money' faucet in the world will be tightened. A large number of arbitrage trades borrowing low-cost yen and investing in global high-risk assets will close out massively, causing funds to flow out of the stock and cryptocurrency markets and return to Japan. This is a significant blow to global risk assets!
Market sentiment panic transmission: When the stock market and foreign exchange market tremble, the 'emotion amplifier' in the cryptocurrency circle will inevitably follow with a big earthquake. Large funds will run away faster than retail investors.
Therefore, this is not irrelevant news; it is the sword of Damocles hanging over our heads. Before and after it falls, the market is likely to use violent fluctuations to digest the panic! Our operations must prioritize this 'super variable'!
Technical perspective: All rebounds are 'baiting the bulls'; the structure is already on the verge of collapse!
In the 2980-3015 range, the rebound has hit a wall multiple times and fallen back, this is the main defensive line for the bears. The key level is 2880, the lower edge of the sideways platform in recent days. Once it effectively breaks down, the sideways structure will declare failure, and the lower space will be completely opened up.
The MACD yellow and white lines are below the zero axis, which is a typical weak oscillation and a preparatory downward trend! The so-called 'golden cross rebound' is long overdue, and the risk of the 'death cross' opening downward is increasing.
Conclusion: Before the interest rate hike bomb drops, market leaders will likely choose 'risk aversion' and 'downward smashing' to react in advance, rather than aggressively attacking resistance levels.
Mig's personal opinion: Before the Bank of Japan's decision on December 19, the possibility of ETH violently breaking above 3015 to test 3100 is extremely low. The greater probability is to maintain weakness, and once it breaks below the key support at 2880, a new round of decline will begin, with the first target at 2800, the second target at 2700, and in extreme cases, looking towards the 2600 area.
So what should retail investors do? Don't rush, Mig has a couple of tips for you:
If you have coins: right now, 2980-3015 is the 'graduation exam' for the rebound. If you can't get through, don't rush to increase your position. The key level to watch is 2880, and if the 4-hour chart closes below it, don't stubbornly hold on, reduce your position if necessary. The next stop may directly look towards 2800, or even 2700 and 2600.
If you want to enter the market: don't chase now, wait patiently. If it breaks below 2880, you can wait for a rebound nearby to try a short position, targeting downward. If it really breaks through 3015 strongly and stabilizes, then the short logic will fail in the short term, and you can follow the long position lightly when it pulls back, looking towards 3100.
Remember, the longer the sideways market lasts, the greater the potential fluctuations may be. For now, watch more and act less; preserving your principal will allow you to wait for the real opportunity.
I am Mig, I don't brag or make empty promises, I just like to talk about the market in plain language.
In fact, every day in the village and chat rooms, I share more detailed support and resistance switching points and sudden signals. Many old friends have avoided many pitfalls by following along. If you also find this straightforward analysis appealing, follow Mig, and let's find opportunities together amid the fluctuations and move steadily forward.
