I saw a strange thing and hurried to tell everyone. That 'big short', has he run away?
Just now, I came across a message saying that the 'largest short' who was aggressively shorting ZEC on Hyperliquid has started to reduce his position again! From a $16.5 million ZEC short position, he has reduced it all the way to $9.1 million, looking like he's 'surrendering and retreating'. Newbies will definitely be excited: Wow, the shorts have run away, does that mean a big rebound is coming? Should we rush in quickly?
Don't rush! Let me help you unpack the message 'bones'.
We play with coins, and it's most taboo to only look at the title. I, Qi He, tell you that this message has a real killing opportunity hidden in the second half:
First, the money he reduced from his positions has been turned around to increase his short position in MON. What does this indicate? He is not out of shorting; he thinks that at this point, ZEC may not extract too much profit temporarily and has switched to a weaker 'soft target'!
Second, his average price for ZEC short positions is 389 USD, and if you take a look at the market now, where is the ZEC price? It's hovering around 387! It's quite terrifying to think that he is almost liquidating near the cost price, calmly and collectedly. This is not called 'retreat'; this is called 'realizing profits, locking in gains.'
Third, don't forget, he is still the largest short seller of ZEC and still holds nearly ten million USD in short position chips. This is called 'strategic adjustment,' not 'surrender.'
Looking at the candlestick chart again, it is all 'pressure.'
Let's look at the 4-hour chart together.
Position: The price is firmly stuck at the first support level of 387.56, like a plaster. If this position cannot hold, below is open ground, where you can see 350 at a glance.
Pressure: Above, at the 438 position, it acts like a ceiling. Further up at 477, it is even more like an unbreakable wall. Every time it rebounds to these two positions, it gets hammered down with a 'thud.'
Indicators: Most critically, the two lines of the MACD are lying underwater and still in a death cross. This indicates that the momentum of the short-term decline has not recovered at all, and there is no strength for an upward attack. This is called a 'technical bear state.'
How should players with different positions act tonight?
If you are heavily invested and trapped: Don't expect to break free immediately based on news. If there is a rebound to the 398-405 area, it is a good opportunity for you to reduce positions and lower risks. Staying alive is more important than anything.
If you are lightly positioned and want to enter: Hold your horses! Now is absolutely not a good time. The real opportunity is to wait for it to effectively break below 387 and approach 350 to see if there are signs of stabilization.
My view: Surround and attack, beware of false rebounds!
Combining the 'tricks' on the news front and the 'downtrend' on the technical front, it is extremely difficult for ZEC to directly reverse and surge to 438 or even higher tonight or in the short term! The greater possibility is that it will repeatedly grind at the 387 position until everyone loses patience. Once it breaks below 387, looking for support at 350 will be a high-probability event.
The current 'short position reduction' is likely not a call to charge but rather a bull trap designed to attract retail investors to take over. It creates the illusion that 'the bears are gone, it should rise,' luring you to enter and buy the dip, then the remaining short positions and market panic will drive the price down again.
I am Qihe from the cryptocurrency circle, teaching you how to seize this market opportunity to reap the full benefits! If you don't know how to time your entries, Qihe will provide real-time analysis in the village, offering the best current entry points. Follow Qihe, + chat room to help you avoid pitfalls, dissect subsequent capital movements at the first opportunity, and capture every profit window!#美国非农数据超预期 $ZEC
