From the current market view, SUI is still in a phase of high volatility and weak fluctuations in the short term, but the mid to long-term narrative and ecological progress are still ongoing. It is suitable to adopt a strategy of 'active timing + gradual layout' rather than going all in or chasing short-term highs.
1. Latest price and market overview of SUI
- The current price is around 1.5 USD, with little change in the last 24 hours, continuing the fluctuation pattern.
- Compared to the historical high of about 5.35 USD set in early January 2025, the current price has significantly retraced and is in the 'middle range' after a high-level halving.
- In the past month, SUI has had high volatility, with repeated fluctuations. Short-term capital is mainly focused on swing trading, while long-term capital is still waiting for better prices or clearer trends.
For Vietnamese retail investors, this means:
- Short-term sentiment is cautious, with intense long-short battles;
- There is still room for optimization in medium- to long-term costs, but it is no longer in the lowest 'bargain zone';
- Greater emphasis is needed on risk control and position management, rather than emotional trading.
Two, macro and market environment: set a 'market coordinate' for SUI
- On the macro side, the Federal Reserve has entered a phase of interest rate cut expectations and game theory, with marginal liquidity improvement, but has not yet fully loosened, and risk assets are generally in a state of 'having imagination but not daring to go all in'.
- In terms of the cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin and Ethereum have entered a high-level oscillation after a prior surge, with funds rotating more between mainstream coins and leading public chains.
- Altcoins, especially in the public chain track, generally face: increased fundamental differentiation, and projects with medium market value and liquidity are more likely to be traded short-term rather than held long-term.
In this context, SUI is currently closer to:
- A medium-sized public chain asset that has 'narrative and ecology, but market value and liquidity are not sufficient to resist declines absolutely';
- It is easy to follow the market sentiment, making it difficult to completely independently form a trend;
- The elasticity is greater during good news, but the pullback will also be faster during bad news.
Three, analysis of the latest progress of the SUI project and ecology
From a medium- to long-term value perspective, the core focus of SUI still lies in:
- High-performance public chain positioning based on the Move language, focusing on high throughput, low latency, and asset-oriented programming paradigms;
- DeFi, GameFi, NFT, and other ecosystems are gradually expanding, with on-chain activity significantly improved compared to the early stages of being on-chain;
- The infrastructure surrounding SUI (wallets, DEX, lending, derivatives, etc.) will continue to iterate in 2025, with improvements in protocol security and capital efficiency.
Risk points should also be clear:
- Competing fiercely with other public chains (such as Solana, Aptos, etc.), with limited developer and user resources, ecological competition is long-term;
- On-chain TVL and real-use scenarios are still in the construction phase, easily dragged down by market sentiment and liquidity extraction in the short term;
- Future unlocks and early investors' chip monetization pressure may amplify volatility at certain time nodes.
Four, technical aspects: what position is it currently in?
Based on recent trends and technical indicators, SUI roughly presents:
- Medium-term trend: after falling back from a high of over $5, it is still in a wide oscillation downward channel and has not formed a clear, stable medium- to long-term upward trend.
- Support and resistance:
- Important resistance area above: around $2.0–2.5, as it is a previous area of concentrated volume trading, there is significant pressure from the unwrapped and short-term profit-taking positions.
- Key support area below: around $1.2–1.3, if it breaks this range and expands in volume, it may open up further downward space.
- Emotion and structure:
- Short-term funds are cautious, with characteristics of 'volume contraction rebound and volume expansion drop';
- The price has repeatedly found support in the $1.x range, indicating that medium- to long-term funds are gradually accumulating, but a strong trend has not formed.
From the market structure perspective, SUI currently resembles:
- In a phase of 'bottoming out but the trend has not completely reversed';
- To regain strength in the medium term, it requires: market cooperation + ecological benefits + funds to flow in again.
Five, medium- to long-term trend outlook: rationally view various 'price predictions'
There are many predictions about SUI's future price in the market, for example:
- Some institutions estimate the range for 2025 to be around $1–1.5, regarded as a year of oscillation;
- There are also more optimistic long-cycle predictions, pulling potential highs in 2027–2030 to several dollars or even several tens of dollars.
It needs to be emphasized that:
- These predictions are more based on historical trends, technical indicators, and optimistic assumptions, not certainties;
- The valuation of public chain projects highly depends on: macro cycles (the strength of the next bull market), real-use scenarios on-chain, developer ecology, and governance performance;
- For individual investors in Vietnam, more importantly: participate in potential growth within controllable risks rather than betting on a single price target.
It can be pragmatically divided into three scenarios:
- Conservative: Global liquidity is flat, public chain competition is fierce, SUI mainly oscillates in the $1–2 range, being more of a trading item than a long-term bull stock.
- Neutral expectation: if the next bull market arrives, SUI will rise along with the public chain sector as a whole and has a chance to challenge the previous high range again, provided that the ecology continues to expand.
- Optimistic scenario: SUI has killer applications in DeFi/GameFi and other tracks, with TVL and user numbers significantly increasing, having the opportunity to experience an over-expected valuation reassessment, but this depends on multiple conditions resonating and should not be seen as an 'inevitable path'.
Six, operational suggestions for Vietnamese retail investors (not investment advice)
1) Which role suits you? First, ask yourself three questions
- You are:
- Short-term traders (who focus on volatility and frequent operations)?
- Are you still a medium- to long-term allocator (willing to hold for over 1–2 years)?
- Can you accept:
- Volatility of 30–50% or even more?
- Is your total position in cryptocurrency assets currently too high?
It is not recommended to increase leverage or heavily invest in a single asset before clarifying these issues.
2) Short-term trading ideas (suitable for experienced investors who can monitor the market)
- Currently in a high volatility oscillation zone, short-term more suitable:
- Buy low near key support levels (such as $1.2–1.3), reduce positions or take profits near pressure levels ($1.8–2.0 and above);
- Strictly set stop-losses, such as stopping losses if it breaks support by 5–8%, rather than 'holding on for dear life'.
- Remember:
- It is not recommended to chase high prices after a single day of significant volume increase;
- Do not use leverage while trading with essential living funds; this is a common high-risk mistake among retail investors in Vietnam.
3) Medium- to long-term layout ideas (suitable for busy people who do not often watch the market)
- Position control:
- The overall cryptocurrency assets should not exceed the proportion of total assets you can bear as risk (for example, within 20–30%, depending on the individual);
- In cryptocurrency assets, SUI is only a part of the public chain sector, not the entirety.
- It is recommended to use a batch building + regular investment approach:
- Split the funds planned to be invested in SUI into 3–5 parts;
- Buying in batches during price corrections/panic, rather than going all in at once;
- Avoid buying heavily during periods of excitement when social media is uniformly bullish.
- Pre-set:
- Stop-loss plan: for example, if it falls 30–40% from the average cost of the position, it must be reassessed whether to continue holding;
- Profit-taking plan: for example, take profit in batches after doubling, recover the principal, and let the remaining position 'make friends with time and trend'.
4) Risk management and psychological construction
- Clearly: SUI is a high-risk asset, and the price may remain long-term below your purchase price, or even halve;
- Do not:
- Stimulated by the 'get-rich stories' from the community and KOLs, exceeding your own capacity;
- Using high-risk methods such as borrowing, credit cards, or mortgaging properties to increase positions.
- To achieve:
- Only use spare money to participate, assuming that even if it goes to zero, it will not affect your quality of life;
- Record your reasons for buying and selling conditions to avoid emotional actions.
Seven, a simple action list suitable for Vietnamese investors
- If you do not have SUI:
- It is possible to first test with a small position (for example, within 20–30% of total planned funds), waiting for the price to retrace closer to support before gradually increasing positions;
- Concurrently focus on: SUI ecological progress, on-chain activity and market sentiment.
- If you are already stuck at a relatively high position:
- First assess whether the overall position is too large;
- If the position is too heavy, consider reducing positions in batches during rebounds to lower overall holding costs and risks;
- If the position is reasonable, consider extending the cycle and waiting for the next large-scale market movement, but accept the time cost and uncertainty.
- If you are an active short-term trader:
- Strictly execute the trading plan, set profit-taking and stop-loss;
- Control the risks of single transactions and total positions; do not blindly increase leverage due to a few successful instances.
Finally, a reminder: regardless of the path SUI takes in the future, it should not become the 'only bet' in your asset allocation. For individual investors in Vietnam, a healthier mindset is:
- First, manage your daily cash flow and fiat currency savings;
- Use part of the funds that can bear losses to diversify into various quality assets; SUI is just one high-risk, high-elasticity option.
