From the current market signal, $PIPPIN is highly likely to follow the rhythm of "consolidation → false breakdown → volume rebound": Currently, the volume of short positions being liquidated far exceeds that of long positions, indicating that the previous bearish selling pressure has been realizing profits and gradually releasing, which is a potential signal for a bottoming out; however, the long-short ratio still leans bearish, and funds have not yet formed a consensus, so in the short term, it will first maintain consolidation, with the main players quietly accumulating positions during this phase (after all, there are signs of net inflow in short-term contract funds).

Once the consolidation has digested the floating positions, it is highly likely that there will be a small-scale pullback to induce a false breakdown — scaring out hesitant positions; after that, as long as the contract open interest rises and funds continue to increase, it can lead to a rebound market.

Of course, if there is a sudden net outflow of funds during the consolidation, it may extend the bottoming period, but currently, there are clearer signs that the main players have not fully withdrawn.