🔸 Prediction 1: Bitcoin will break the 4-year cycle and set a new historical high.
The historical trend of Bitcoin typically follows a four-year cycle, but this view holds that the diminishing halving effect, expected lower interest rates, improved leverage control, and increasingly clear regulatory frameworks will break this cycle. After the ETF spot trading, institutional capital inflow has accelerated, and combined with a more favorable policy environment, it is expected that Bitcoin will set a new historical high in 2026.
🔸 Prediction 2: Bitcoin's volatility will be lower than that of Nvidia stocks.
Bitcoin is currently still considered a highly volatile asset, but in reality, its volatility in 2025 will be lower than that of Nvidia stocks. In the long term, driven by institutional capital and ETFs, Bitcoin's volatility has steadily decreased over the past decade, and this trend is expected to continue in 2026.
🔸 Prediction 3: As institutional demand accelerates, ETFs will purchase more than 100% of the new supply of Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana.
Cryptocurrency prices are determined by supply and demand. Since the launch of cryptocurrency ETFs, institutional demand has far outstripped new supply. The amount of Bitcoin purchased by the Bitcoin ETF since 2024 is twice the number of newly mined Bitcoins, which proves this point. Looking ahead to 2026, considering the known new supply and the likelihood that ETFs will continue to purchase more Bitcoin than the current levels once large institutions formally participate, the supply and demand fundamentals for cryptocurrency prices are considered very solid.
🔸 Prediction 4: Cryptocurrency-related stocks will outperform traditional tech stocks.
Over the past three years, tech stocks have risen by about 140%, but cryptocurrency stocks have performed even better, with the Bitwise Crypto Innovators 30 Index soaring by 585%. As the regulatory environment becomes increasingly clear and friendly, this trend is expected to accelerate by 2026 as cryptocurrency companies expand their product lines, increase revenues, and engage in M&A activities.
🔸 Prediction 5: Polymarket's public betting volume will reach new historical highs, even surpassing levels during the 2024 U.S. elections.
Polymarket experienced explosive growth in 2024 but quickly cooled after the elections; however, the platform is expected to surpass its previous peak in 2026 without waiting for the next presidential election. Opening up to U.S. users, receiving significant investment support from the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), and expanding into new markets are considered key factors driving its growth.
🔸 Prediction 6: Stablecoins will be blamed for causing instability in emerging market currencies.
Stablecoins are growing rapidly, with a market cap increasing from about $205 billion to nearly $300 billion, and are expected to reach $500 billion by the end of 2026, mainly due to demand from high-inflation emerging markets. As cryptocurrencies become more popular, some countries may blame the depreciation of their national currency on stablecoins, but the real reason is the declining confidence in their national currency.
🔸 Prediction 7: On-chain stores, also known as 'ETF 2.0', will double the total assets under management.
On-chain vaults are gradually becoming on-chain investment funds. Although there was a significant correction at the end of 2025, the adoption of institutional-level risk management standards is expected to mature this area rapidly. As we enter 2026, high-quality custodians are expected to attract a large inflow of funds, bringing on-chain vaults into the mainstream, and they are being hailed as 'ETF 2.0' by major financial media.
🔸 Prediction 8: If the CLARITY Act is passed, Ethereum and Solana will reach new all-time highs.
Ethereum and Solana are highly favored as stablecoins and tokenization are two major trends, and these two networks are expected to benefit the most from them. However, whether they can experience explosive growth in 2026 depends on whether the U.S. can pass market-structural legislation such as the CLARITY Act. If this bill is passed, the prices of ETH and SOL may reach all-time highs.
🔸 Prediction 9: Half of the Ivy League endowment funds will invest in cryptocurrencies.
Brown University became the first endowment fund in the Ivy League (one of the top 8 universities in the U.S.) to allocate funds to Bitcoin, and it is expected that many other Ivy League institutions will follow suit in 2026. If these funds allocate just 1% of their portfolios to Bitcoin, the impact will be significant and could trigger a wave of participation from pension funds, insurance companies, and other large institutions.
🔸 Prediction 10: The U.S. will launch more than 100 cryptocurrency-related ETFs.
After years of rejection, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has finally opened the door to cryptocurrency ETFs, first approving the listing of Bitcoin ETFs in 2024, followed by Ethereum ETFs in 2025. Subsequently, the SEC accelerated the approval process by issuing universal listing standards, leading to a series of new products such as Solana, XRP, and Dogecoin ETFs. With the regulatory framework becoming clearer and strong growth in investor demand, 2026 is expected to be the breakout year for cryptocurrency ETFs, with over 100 related ETFs expected to be listed, and Bitwise is expected to lead the market in terms of capital inflows.
🔸 Additional Prediction: The correlation between Bitcoin and the stock market will decrease.
Data shows that Bitcoin's correlation with the stock market is generally low, with its 90-day correlation coefficient with the S&P 500 mostly below 0.50. Looking ahead to 2026, as cryptocurrency-specific factors such as regulatory changes and institutional capital inflows drive prices up, while the stock market faces valuation and growth pressures, this correlation is expected to decline further.
