Contradictory Non-Farm Data Explodes: Strong Employment but Soaring Unemployment Rate, Is the Fed's Rate Cut Expectation More Stable?

Last night, the U.S. non-farm data staged a "tale of two extremes"; the market was initially confused, then quickly interpreted it as a "golden assist" for the Fed to cut rates.

📊 The "Divided" Signal of the Data

· Seemingly Strong: 64,000 new non-farm jobs added in November, far exceeding expectations.

· In Reality Weak: The unemployment rate unexpectedly soared to 4.6%, while October's data was significantly revised down, with employment numbers plummeting by 105,000, the largest drop since the pandemic began. Wage growth continues to slow down.

🎯 The Market's "Unified" Interpretation: Soft Landing in Progress

The market quickly "translated" this set of contradictory data: the labor market is evolving on an ideal path of "softening but not collapsing." This is exactly the scene the Fed hopes to see in order to achieve a "soft landing" and be able to confidently shift towards rate cuts. Therefore, after the data was released, expectations for rate cuts in 2025 not only did not decrease but actually increased, with speculation about the possibility of the first rate cut occurring earlier.

🚀 Impact on the Crypto Market: Liquidity Expectations Support

This report reinforces the macro narrative of "the Fed's policy shift is imminent." For the crypto market, as long as the expectations for rate hikes completely dissipate and the path for rate cuts becomes clear, it constitutes the most fundamental liquidity boost. This could provide solid bottom support for the market and encourage funds to seek opportunities in risk assets.

💎 Summary and Outlook

Goldman Sachs and other institutions pointed out that the data may be full of "noise" due to the government shutdown, and the real trend needs to be validated by January data next year. However, in the short term, market sentiment has chosen to believe: evidence of economic cooling is accumulating, and the Fed's easing hand is getting closer.

Is this "divided" report, in your view, a clear signal for rate cuts, or is it a data fog that needs to be wary of?