The US dollar is weakening, and gold is hitting new highs,

Many people deduce from this:

In 2026, there is a high probability of a bull market window.

This logic is not wrong,

but the problem is——the time has not yet come.

The most dangerous phase of the market is often not a crash, but rather "it seems like it can hold on for a while longer."

From a high-level structural perspective,

BTC's long-term indicators still point to a downward range.

Such signals at this level,

historically, there has almost never been a time when they were "misread."

Just like the period from the end of 2021 to the beginning of 2022——

After BTC peaked at 69,000,

it still hovered above 50,000 for a long time,

and the market generally believed it was just a "healthy correction,"

and the bull market would continue.

But the real turning point is not the price,

but rather the trend has already completed its course.

Was the "black swan" of February 2022 really just a coincidence?

The timing of the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict,

just happened to coincide with the turning window of the global cycle.

This is not a conspiracy theory,

but rather the cycle has long given direction, and events are just responsible for accelerating it.

From a technical perspective:

BTC's monthly death cross,

was already confirmed in November 2021

The subsequent movement only follows the established direction

Two halvings, two 0.618 retracements,

are typical of a large downward structure.

War is not the starting point, just a trigger.

The current question is not "will there be bad news," but rather "when will the bad news come?"

A truly mature market never informs you of bad news in advance.

Bad news is always potential, unknown, and sudden.

When a large trend is downward,

any event will become an amplifier.

There is only one conclusion

Instead of betting on "maybe it will turn bullish soon,"

it is better to first accept a more realistic judgment:

The current structure does not exhibit bull market characteristics.

Defense takes precedence over offense.

Staying alive is more important than catching the top rebound.

It is better to treat oneself as trading in a bear market,

than to blindly charge headlong before the trend reverses.

The market does not reward bravery,

it only rewards——

those who follow the cycle, understand the rhythm, and can endure. @实盘带单-K哥