Three trading scenarios with entry/exit points and clear stop-losses for the next 48 hours; key support — around $1.27–$1.30, resistance — $1.55–$1.60.
Level marking and quick plan
| Scenario | Entry | Target | Stop-loss |
|---|---:|---:|---:|
| Bullish | breakout $1.55 with volume | $1.60; then $1.75 | $1.30 |
| Neutral | pullback to $1.25–$1.35 | $1.35–$1.55 | $1.20 |
| Bearish | breakout below $1.27 | $1.10–$1.30 | $1.40 |
> Sources:
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Current picture and confirming facts
FIL recently tested support around $1.27–$1.30 and at certain sessions dropped to $1.28 on increased volumes, which enhances the significance of this zone as a short-term support. CoinDesk's analysis also notes testing support around $1.27–$1.28 and records resistance around $1.30–$1.35 as the nearest obstacle for price recovery. Indicators and moving averages indicate selling pressure in the short- and medium-term, increasing the likelihood of sideways consolidation or a pullback before a decisive movement.
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Detailed trading scenarios
- Bullish scenario (entry on breakout): wait for a confident close above $1.55 with increasing volumes; first target $1.60, upon breakout — an extension to $1.75. Partially take profit at $1.60, move the stop to breakeven after the breakout at $1.60.
- Neutral scenario (range): with weak volumes, consolidation is expected at $1.25–$1.55; entries on pullback in the zone of $1.25–$1.35 with targets inside the range and a stop below $1.20.
- Bearish scenario (down breakout): breaking and holding below $1.27 on volumes opens the way to $1.10–$1.30; in this scenario, set the stop for the short above $1.40 to account for false breakouts.
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Risk management rules
- Risk per trade: no more than 1–3% of capital.
- Position size: calculate the volume based on the distance to the stop-loss.
- Monitoring: watch volumes during breakouts — they confirm the strength of the movement; without volumes, a breakout is false.
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What to track right now
- The dynamics of Bitcoin and the overall market risk appetite.
- Volumes when testing $1.27–$1.30 and during attempts to break $1.55–$1.60.
In the short term, FIL is likely to remain in the range around $1.25–$1.60; key support is around $1.27–$1.30, a breakout down will open the way to $1.10–$1.15, and an upward breakout with volume — to $1.60–$1.75.
Current picture and important levels
- Key support: $1.27–$1.30 — the zone that FIL recently tested; holding it is critical for a neutral or bullish scenario.
- Nearest resistance: $1.55–$1.60 — a breakout with volume will confirm upward momentum.
These levels form the basis for all short-term scenarios and should be in focus when trading.
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Three scenarios for 24–48 hours
| Scenario | Probability | Target | Stop-loss |
|---|---:|---:|---:|
| Bullish | 25% | $1.60 → $1.75 | $1.30 |
| Neutral | 50% | $1.25–$1.55 | $1.20 |
| Bearish | 25% | $1.10 → $1.15 | $1.40 |
> Note: some aggregators and models indicate a possible decline to $1.15 in the coming days if market pressure continues.
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Why such scenarios
- Support at $1.27–$1.30 was recently tested on increased volumes, making it critical: breaking it will strengthen the bearish momentum.
Aggregators show mixed signals: some services predict further decline in the coming days, while others indicate a possible rebound with improved market sentiment.
- Technical patterns indicate a possibility of consolidation in a wide range; once it breaks out, the direction will become clearer.
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Practical trading tactics
- If you hold the position: take part profit upon reaching $1.60, move the stop to breakeven after a confident breakout.
- If you enter: it is preferable to wait for a confirmed breakout at $1.55–$1.60 with volume or an entry on pullback at $1.25–$1.35.
- If you short: consider shorting while holding below $1.27 with a target of $1.10–$1.15; set the stop-loss above $1.40 to account for false breakouts.
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What to track right now
- Volumes during breaks of levels $1.27 and $1.55 — they confirm the strength of the movement.
- The dynamics of Bitcoin and the overall market risk appetite — altcoins often follow BTC.
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