The Fed is likely to hold interest rates steady in January (75.6% probability): An in-depth analysis for crypto investors

**I. The fundamental conflict in the macro narrative: The "arbitrage window" between expectations and reality** The market has heavily priced in the expectation of no rate cut in January (75.6% probability), meaning that **"maintaining current rates" is already priced in and unlikely to trigger unexpected selling pressure.** The real arbitrage opportunity lies in the market's interpretation of the **"slope" and **timing"** of future interest rate cuts. ### Cost of capital: Suppression and waiting for short-term "dollar arbitrage" - **High cost of hedging:** Crypto institutions and large whales often borrow low-interest currencies (such as the US dollar) to invest in high-yield crypto assets. The high-interest-rate environment keeps the cost of borrowing dollars high (e.g., via the repo market or bank credit). - **Impact:** Due to the high cost of borrowing dollars, crypto assets must achieve exceptionally high returns to generate positive returns.