Crypto friends, I am Zhao Gongming! Just when the market is largely pessimistic, XRP reveals a key figure: a single-day net inflow of 8.54 million USD into the US spot ETF! Institutions are still quietly buying, but the technical charts are showing a 'strong sell' signal in red. Follow Zhao Gongming to see through this contradiction, is it an opportunity or a trap?
News: Is ETF inflow a lifesaver?
Every day, 8.5 million USD in real money flows into XRP through ETFs, with total net inflow exceeding 1 billion USD—this is indeed a long-term positive, indicating that institutions recognize the spot value of XRP. But note two details: first, the net asset ratio is only 0.98%, still a 'little brother' in the ETF family; second, this kind of slow institutional money often cannot withstand the short-term stampede of retail and leveraged funds. In simple terms: ETFs provide a bottom support, but they may not be able to immediately drive a rise.
Technical aspect: The cruel reality is laid out here.
Overall bearish trend: 1-hour, 5-hour, daily, and weekly all show 'strong sell', 9 moving averages sell against 3 buys, and 8 technical indicators sell against 0 buys - this is the absolute dominion of bears.
Key positions: 2.0 is the iron top, 1.896 is the current lifeline. The current price is 1.9124, swaying right by the lifeline. The support at 1.82 seems not far, but once it breaks, the space is considerable.
MACD death cross confirms the decline: Death cross below the 0 axis + energy contraction, this is a typical continuation of the decline, with weak rebounds.
The truth about funds: Although ETFs are flowing in, most market funds are flowing out in the short term. Especially in contract funds, 34.05 million flowed out in 4 hours - this indicates that leveraged players are panicking and withdrawing, forming a hedge against ETFs.
Zhao Gongming shares daily; if it helps you, you can follow Zhao Gongming, enter the chat room to get first-hand information and entry points!
Zhao Gongming's view:
The continuous inflow of ETFs will make the decline become 'entangled', but it is difficult to reverse the bearish trend from a technical perspective. I judge that XRP is likely to struggle repeatedly around 1.896 and eventually test 1.82 downwards. Want to break through 2.0 directly? Unless a sudden significant positive development occurs, the probability is less than 30%.
Retail operation advice:
Positioning advice: Pay attention to whether 1.896 can hold. If the rebound can't even get past 1.94, reduce positions during the rebound. If it breaks below 1.89, stop loss must be executed; don't fantasize that ETFs can definitely hold up.
Cautionary advice: Be sure to wait for two signals: one is the price touching around 1.82, and the second is a divergence lasting more than 30 minutes. Don't reach out before the position.
Remember: Under the overwhelming signal of 'strong sell' from the technical aspect, all good news is an opportunity for you to adjust your position, not a horn for you to charge in heavily.
The most confusing time in the market is when news and technical aspects are at odds. I am Zhao Gongming, skilled at finding the true direction from this kind of contradiction. If you don't want to be repeatedly harvested between the slow bull of institutions and the fast drop of the market, follow Zhao Gongming; I will dissect these 'contradictory signals' in real-time in the chat room to help you capture the turning points.#美国非农数据超预期 #亚洲家族办公室加密资产配置
