Solana's price movement has calmed down after weeks of pressure. The SOL index has decreased by about 10% over the past thirty days; however, it has traded almost steadily over the past twenty-four hours, even amid a broader market weakness. That pause is significant.
This comes at a time when Solana is quietly seeking institutional exposure in Brazil through the Solana exchange-traded product, which is expected to be listed on the B3 exchange. This move strengthens a steady channel for regulated demand at a time when the charts are showing signs of a breakout. The question now is simple. Can this background help Solana resolve the difficult technical setup, or are sellers still in control of the trend?
ETP buzz meets a downward collapse structure
Valour's Solana ETP provides Brazilian investors and institutions exposure to SOL hours. While it is not a short-term price driver, it adds steady absorption during sell-pressure periods. This is more significant when charts show key patterns. It may also act as an emotional trigger in a market where every asset looks to narratives.
Technically, Solana is trading within a head-and-shoulders structure, not within a clean writing pattern. When the neckline slopes downward, breakouts require stronger confirmation as sellers continue to press lower levels over time.
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However, some signs are showing for buyers, which may help combat sellers and assist Solana's price in achieving a clean neckline breakout.
Quiet accumulation is showing beneath the surface
While prices struggle, chain data shows early signs of accumulation.
The 3 to 6-month holder cohort has significantly increased its share of the supply. This group held 11.756% of the supply on November 16, which has now risen to 16.126% by December 16. This is a sharp increase over one month and suggests mid-term buyer intervention amid weakness.
Meanwhile, the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) is sending a constructive signal. Between November 3 and December 15, Solana's price recorded lower lows, but the CMF formed higher lows. This divergence suggests that buying pressure is building beneath the surface, even as the price declines.
However, the CMF remains below zero. This indicates that large capital is still cautious. Buyers are present but not aggressive yet. Together, these signals suggest positioning, not confirmation.
Solana price levels that determine the next phase
Solana's price now carries the full weight of the story. $141 is the first level to watch. Reclaiming it would form a breakout of the slanted neck, but it won't change the trend. Remember, the neckline slopes downward, thus requiring stronger confirmation.
If $153 is the key. A daily close above $153 will confirm that buyers have overcome the downward structure and may open the door to higher resistance areas.
On the attack side, $121 remains the crucial support. A failure there would invalidate the accumulation hypothesis and the breakout pattern, refocusing attention on deeper downside.
