The price movement of Solana has quieted down after several weeks of facing pressure, with SOL down about 10% over the past 30 days. However, in the last 24 hours, the price has barely changed, even as the overall crypto market is weakening, making this pause significant.
Meanwhile, Solana is quietly trying to reach institutional investors in Brazil through Valour’s Solana ETP (Exchange-Traded Product), which is expected to be listed on the B3 stock exchange. This move will support the regulated demand channel during a time when the chart clearly shows breakout signals. Therefore, there is only one question: Will this situation help Solana solve the difficult technical issues, or do sellers still control the trend?
ETP flow with a downward trend structure.
Valour’s Solana ETP offers an investment opportunity in SOL that is regulated and supervised for investors and institutions in Brazil. Although it may not be a short-term price driver, it helps absorb selling pressure continuously during heavy market sell-offs, which is crucial when the chart trend is showing important patterns. This may also spark confidence in the market that each asset relies on its own narrative.
Technically, Solana is moving within a downward sloping head-and-shoulders pattern. Although it is not a textbook pattern, as the neckline trends lower, a breakout requires stronger confirmation because sellers continue to pressure prices at lower levels.
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However, specific signals on the buyer's side are starting to appear, which may help resist selling pressure and support Solana's chances of clearly breaking the neckline.
Silent accumulation is occurring beneath the surface.
During a difficult price movement, on-chain data shows early accumulation signals.
The group of SOL holders over the past 3-6 months has significantly increased their coin holding ratio. As of November 16, this group held 11.756% of the total supply, while on December 16, it increased to 16.126%, representing a rapid increase within a month and clearly indicating that each medium-term buyer is purchasing during the weak market.
At the same time, the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) index is sending positive signals. Between November 3 and December 15, the price of Solana made new lower lows, but the CMF made higher lows. This divergence indicates that there is buying pressure accumulating beneath, even as prices move down.
However, the CMF remains below zero, indicating that large capital is still cautious. Buyers are present but are not ready to move forward decisively. When these signals are combined, it indicates merely positioning, not confirmation.
The price level of Solana indicates the next upward direction.
The price of Solana is now burdened with all the narratives. The USD 141 level is the first point to watch because if it can regain this level, it will break the sloping neckline. However, it may not change the main trend yet. Remember that the neckline is sloping down, so stronger confirmation is needed.
Thus, USD 153 is the most critical point. If the price closes daily above USD 153, it will confirm that buyers have reversed this sloping structure and may pave the way for prices to head towards higher resistance.
However, for the downward side, USD 121 remains a significant support level. If the price breaks below, it will invalidate the accumulation hypothesis and breakout pattern. Then, attention will return to a deeper downward trend.
