Zhuoyuan 12.18 Gold Morning Review

Don't blindly believe in the trading techniques of being bullish; execution is the key. No matter how good the strategy is, if it doesn't land, it's worth nothing. No matter how bad the market is, as long as you maintain discipline, you can survive.

Gold is oscillating at a high level with a strong bias; the long-short game needs to pay attention to key signals. On December 18, the gold market continued to show a strong oscillation. London gold is currently quoted at 4338.14 USD/ounce, with a slight increase of 0.70% during the day; Gold T+D and Shanghai Gold main contracts both rose, reporting 977.2 yuan/gram (+0.42%) and 982.48 yuan/gram (+0.53%) respectively. Expectations of interest rate cuts, central bank gold purchases, and geopolitical risk aversion have formed a triple support, but one must be wary of overbought pressure and macro data disturbances.

From a key price point perspective, the short-term support for international gold prices is at 4297-4310. Resistance is at 4345-4380; if it stabilizes at 4350, there is hope to challenge the range of 4380-4385. The core logic driving the rise in gold prices is clear: the expectation of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve lowers the dollar and real interest rates, reducing the cost of holding gold; continuous purchases by global central banks establish a foundation for demand; geopolitical conflicts such as those in Venezuela and Russia-Ukraine bring an increase in risk aversion buying. However, upcoming U.S. CPI and non-farm data will become important variables; if the data exceeds expectations or weakens interest rate cut expectations, it may trigger profit-taking.

From a technical perspective, multiple timeframes show a divergence: the daily line shows a solid bullish trend, the moving average system provides support, the MACD golden cross continues above the zero axis, and the RSI is neutral to strong but needs to guard against overbought conditions. The four-hour level shows a narrowing Bollinger Bands, MACD death cross converging, RSI showing a pullback from overbought conditions, and a visible pullback pressure. The one-hour level, however, maintains an upward trend, with the Bollinger Bands opening upwards, and the MACD golden cross expanding, indicating a short-term bullish advantage.

Buy near gold 4320-4310. The target is to break through 4350-4380 with volume for a new high; if not sustained, continue to short with a light position.

The above analysis is Zhuoyuan's personal analysis; investment involves risks, and everything is subject to actual trading. $BTC $ETH #美国非农数据超预期