The recently released November non-farm payroll data, which superficially appears to be “better than expected,” conceals a bearish core that the market finds difficult to perceive — the U.S. added 64,000 non-farm jobs in November, slightly exceeding the market expectation of 51,000, but the unemployment rate simultaneously rose to 4.6%, reaching a new high in over four years, while wage growth hit a near 20-month low, and previous employment data was also significantly revised downward. This contradictory signal means the data did not provide real bullish support for gold, but rather intensified the divergence between bulls and bears.
The Federal Reserve last week implemented its third rate cut of the year, lowering the benchmark interest rate to 3.50%-3.75%. According to past patterns, a rate cut would directly reduce the holding cost of gold and simultaneously suppress the dollar, becoming the core driving force for gold prices to rise. However, after this round of rate cuts, gold prices have remained in a high volatility range between $4300 and $4354, without showing a strong upward trend, and the characteristics of high-level control are particularly evident.
Tonight's CPI: A key variable determining the short-term direction.
The CPI data for November, which will be announced tonight, is the core turning point for the gold market this week. Currently, the market expects the CPI annual rate to remain at 3%.
$4354 has become the key resistance level for the bulls. If the market is strong enough, gold prices should directly break through this position. However, the current prolonged consolidation is accumulating adjustment risks; a prolonged stagnation without an increase can easily form a double top bearish pattern.
If this CPI announcement exceeds the market expectation of 3%, the market's expectation for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates will temporarily cool down, and gold prices are likely to test the resistance at $4354 again, but the likelihood of a direct breakthrough is low.
If the CPI data is lower than expected, it will further strengthen the expectation of interest rate cuts. However, under the current high-level control pattern, it may also become a signal for short sellers to take advantage of the situation.
This week's operation warning: Beware of high-level sweeping trends.
This week is a period of high data concentration, with non-farm payrolls and CPI appearing one after another, while gold prices are approaching the historical high of $4381. This combination of data and highs makes it easy for the market to exhibit a sweeping trend. The bullish trend that just started at the end of last week, in this persistent high-level volatility, is highly likely to be repeatedly washed out and liquidated. Once the short sellers increase their selling pressure, it will directly establish a short-term bearish trend, triggering a significant drop in gold prices. In the current high-level volatility pattern, it is absolutely unwise to blindly chase highs; patience is needed to wait for a clear direction before taking action #巨鲸动向 .
