Both monetary policy and fiscal policy are in force, with 3816 points becoming a key short-term support level, revealing future trends through the movements of major players.
When overnight U.S. tech stocks collectively plummeted and the Nasdaq index fell sharply by 1.81%, many investors were already sweating about today's performance of A-shares. Sure enough, the three major indices of A-shares opened low this morning, and market sentiment was tense at one point.
However, the plot quickly reversed: after a low opening, A-shares rapidly surged, with the Shanghai Composite Index stubbornly turning positive, closing up slightly by 0.16% in the morning, and over 3600 stocks in the two markets rising, with trading volume moderately increasing to 1.05 trillion yuan.
In line with my judgment from this Tuesday, 3816 points indeed became an important short-term support level. The large bullish engulfing candle from yesterday has already hinted at a change in the attitude of main capital.
One, why can A-shares develop an independent market?
In today's world where the connectivity of global capital markets is increasingly enhanced, why can A-shares ignore the significant drop in the US stock market? I believe there are three main supporting factors.
1. Ample liquidity: The central bank has continuously increased the volume of MLF for 9 months, and in December, it conducted a 600 billion yuan buyout reverse repurchase, injecting sufficient "live water" into the market. At the same time, northbound funds have accumulated a net inflow of over 30 billion yuan since December, indicating that foreign capital is actively allocating A-share assets.
2. Clear valuation advantages: The price-to-earnings ratio of the CSI 300 index is less than 12 times, significantly lower than the 28 times of the S&P 500. Sectors like banks and insurance have dividend yields exceeding 4%, providing a very attractive safety margin for global funds.
3. Strong support from policies: The Central Economic Work Conference focuses on "new quality productivity", and capital market reforms continue to deepen. This kind of policy support differs from the past, being more strategic and continuous, providing a clear main line for the market.
Two, the direction of major funds reveals the mystery of the market.
Tracking the movements of major funds is key to judging the short-term trends of the market. The data from yesterday's龙虎榜 shows that the technology and materials sectors are currently receiving funding attention.
LianTe Technology topped the list with a net purchase amount of 399 million yuan, while the "quantitative fund" seats became the largest bull, actively laying out multiple tech stocks. Retail investor "ZuoShouXinYi" then aggressively chased the market's strongest sound, with a net purchase of 120 million yuan in Chaojie Co.
However, it is important to note that there are significant differences between institutions and retail investors in certain stocks. For example, although XueRen Group has received retail investor attention, it faced a net sell-off of 169 million yuan from institutional seats. This kind of "confrontation" usually means that the subsequent volatility of related stocks may intensify, and ordinary investors need to respond cautiously.
Three, how to grasp the market rhythm next?
Regarding the future market, I maintain the following judgment:
Short-term fluctuations, medium-term improvements. After yesterday's big bullish line, the market itself needs to digest profit-taking, and today's fluctuations are completely normal. It is expected that tomorrow may continue to show narrow fluctuations, but next week is expected to exhibit a more obvious upward trend.
In terms of sectors, the "technology + high dividend" barbell strategy is still applicable. On one hand, tech growth sectors such as optical modules and controllable nuclear fusion have policy support and performance certainty; on the other hand, low-valuation high-dividend sectors like banks and insurance provide a safety net.
It is worth noting that private equity institutions are currently generally adopting a strategy of increasing positions on dips. Li Sisi, chairman of Luyong Asset, stated that if there is no persistent sharp decline in the US stock market, the A-share market is expected to show a sustained independent trend in the next month.
Four, how should investors respond?
1. Focus on the main line, avoid chasing high scatter: The direction of capital's collective force clearly points to the "hard technology" sectors such as semiconductors, new materials, and high-end equipment. For targets favored by both institutions and retail investors, priority can be given to them.
2. Grasp the rhythm, avoid emotional trading: The market may maintain a relatively strong oscillation pattern before the end of the year, do not disrupt the overall layout due to daily fluctuations. Use adjustment opportunities to build positions in batches, which is safer than chasing highs.
3. Maintain confidence, look at longer cycles: From a medium to long-term perspective, supported by factors such as the improvement of listed company performance through "anti-involution", the entry of household savings into the market, and the easing of global liquidity, the A-share "slow bull" market is likely to continue in 2026.
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