#美国非农数据超预期 Tonight's CPI data is on the stage, can gold rise above 4350
The core logic of CPI and gold trends: CPI transmits the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy expectations, affecting real interest rates and the US dollar index trends, ultimately dominating the medium-term bullish and bearish direction of gold, with a clear transmission chain and strong guidance.
1. Policy anchoring phase: CPI is the core basis for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy formulation. When the inflation level deviates from the 2% target range, high CPI will strengthen rate hike expectations, while low CPI will boost rate cut expectations.
2. Market linkage phase: Rising rate hike expectations → real interest rates up, US dollar strengthens → gold, as a non-yielding asset, has its opportunity cost raised, putting pressure on prices to decline; the fermentation of rate cut expectations triggers a reverse market trend, supporting and strengthening gold prices.
3. Trend setting phase: The actual release of CPI data will directly rewrite the market's pricing logic for the Federal Reserve's interest rate path, becoming the core variable in the medium-term bullish and bearish game for gold.
Impact of different CPI results on gold (taking the November expected value of 3.1% as an example)
- Bullish scenario (CPI < 3.0%): Confirmation of a slowing inflation trend, further strengthening of rate cut expectations, weakening of the US dollar, strong bullish momentum for gold, positions can be held or increased at opportune moments.
- Neutral scenario (3.0% ≤ CPI ≤ 3.1%): Policy wait-and-see sentiment rises, bets on rate cuts cool down, gold prices are likely to fall into a range of fluctuations, intensifying the bullish and bearish game, suggesting to wait or trade lightly by selling high and buying low.
- Bearish scenario (CPI > 3.1%): Inflation stickiness exceeds expectations, rate hike expectations restart, the strengthening US dollar suppresses gold prices, bears dominate, suggesting to set up short positions or take profits on long positions.
Key supplements
1. Core CPI (excluding energy and food) has higher reference value, and its stickiness will affect the pace of the Federal Reserve's policy adjustments, thereby extending the impact cycle on gold prices.
2. Real interest rates are the core anchor point for gold pricing, requiring a comprehensive assessment of the relative changes between CPI and nominal interest rates, rather than focusing solely on CPI data.
