To be honest, this wave of market movement is truly hellish in difficulty; both bulls and bears risk liquidation with just a moment's inattention. Last night saw another round of mutual liquidation. However, my friends and I are doing fine, at most just breaking even and soaking up the sun. We made a decent profit from shorting ETH. In this choppy market, one must watch more and act less, only taking advantage of high cost-performance opportunities, and definitely reduce trading frequency—don't rush into chaotic operations.
In the past 24 hours, a total of 156,621 people were liquidated across the network, with a total liquidation amount of $540 million, including $382 million in long positions and $158 million in short positions.
BTC
The current core characteristic of the market is an extreme lack of liquidity, with funds being siphoned off by the 'Seven Sisters' of the US and Cuba, leading to a decrease in the attractiveness of Bitcoin. This makes the market susceptible to repeated stop-loss and liquidation harvesting through up and down spikes. For example, spikes occur in the range of 84000-88700.
From a structural perspective, breaking below 84000 and quickly recovering may present a rebound opportunity. Don't be aggressive in going long until it stabilizes. It's advisable to make small positions in spot trading, with a dollar-cost averaging layout in the 80000-85000 range, reserving capital to respond to extreme dips.
Today's shorting strategy at highs: short-term resistance at 87000; if it does not break through, continue to look bearish, targeting 85000-84000. A spike down to 81000 can be an opportunity for a swing long, with extreme buying at 76000; if it breaks 87000, watch for rebound resistance at 88000-89000.
ETH
Ethereum's overall trend is highly consistent with Bitcoin. From a technical analysis perspective, the potential downside target range is around 2620–2820, which coincides closely with previous significant lows and aligns with the Fibonacci retracement structure. Within this area, dollar-cost averaging can also be considered for early positioning in anticipation of a medium-term rebound, but the premise remains not to go all-in, not to be aggressive, and not to use leverage.
Short-term operations: Pay attention to the 2860 level for Ethereum today; if it can't hold above 2860, it indicates a lack of strength in the minor rebound, continuing to look for support levels around 2790-2761-2720.
Altcoin
There is a truth in Web3 that everyone avoids mentioning: many projects' token economics have little to do with their actual business. For example, with DEX tokens like UNI, 1inch, and CAKE, no matter how many users or how large the transaction volume, the tokens you hold don’t earn you money, at most you get a symbolic governance right.
Recently, Uniswap's plan to use transaction fees to repurchase UNI surprisingly made the news, but this should have been standard practice. The popularity of AI tokens in this round is because they have started to tie tokens with projects. Some use revenue to repurchase and destroy tokens, while others require holding more tokens to enjoy better services. This direction is correct, at least it is no longer pure speculation.
But the problem is: do these promises have hard constraints? What if the team wants to change? Many projects intentionally speak ambiguously to leave themselves an out. In the last round, many teams relied on this 'compliance' excuse to openly not distribute dividends or repurchase tokens, ultimately legally exploiting investors.
Therefore, the next time I choose altcoins, I will look at these three criteria:
1. The more tokens you hold, the higher the service privileges you enjoy (graded usage).
2. If the project is profitable, use revenue to repurchase tokens (the team gets involved directly to support the market).
3. Directly use revenue to destroy tokens, creating deflation, allowing prices to increase as people use them (the team earns less or nothing).
It is best for projects to meet at least two of these criteria; if a project is particularly excellent, meeting one criterion may also be considered. In any case, it's important to research the basic situation of the coin to see if it aligns. Does anyone have altcoins they want to study? I can help take a look.
$DYDX
DYDX is a lesson in blood and tears for veteran investors! In 2021, it burst onto the scene as a leader in perp DEXs, with heat comparable to today's HYPE. Retail investors heavily invested, hoping it would become a decentralized BNB, but after its launch, it plummeted 99%, leaving countless people with nothing. Altcoins iterate rapidly; today's champion may become worthless tomorrow. Retail investors who can't afford to lose should focus on the top ten cryptocurrencies by market cap during a bear market; the risks will be much lower!
$TAKE
Currently, there are no signs of selling pressure in the market; accumulation continues without significant outflows of funds. The subsequent trend is hard to predict, but the critical positions for market makers are 0.35, 0.325, and the lower level at 0.281. Whether going long or short, these price levels should be set as critical stop-loss points to avoid pitfalls!
$HYPE
HYPE has broken below the lower boundary and is starting to accelerate its decline. Yesterday's burning news only provided a brief support, which was immediately engulfed. The bearish force is very strong, and it still hasn't accelerated to close; target around 20 to observe reactions.
