The exit of giant whales has led to a sharp decline in market confidence
Recently, the price fluctuations of #ASTER have once again attracted attention. A giant whale sold 3 million ASTER worth $2.33 million on December 17, locking in a loss of about $667,000. This action not only released a significant amount of selling pressure but also instantly intensified bearish sentiment in the market.
It is worth noting that this transaction occurred after the price had accumulated around $0.78 for two weeks, and the rapid shift in market sentiment caught many off guard. With the accelerated flow of seller funds, the short-term market response has become more cautious, and the exit of large holders has intensified expectations of a decline, leading investors to begin questioning whether the downward trend can be reversed in the short term.
Short-term technicals point to lower prices.
From a technical perspective, ASTER is still sliding within a clear descending channel, with bears continuing to dominate. As of the time of writing, prices are trading around $0.76, below the 1.618 Fibonacci retracement level of $0.836. The current focus targets for sellers are $0.741, $0.646, and $0.588.
The MACD indicator shows that the signal line remains above the MACD line, maintaining a negative state. Although buyers may attempt a slight rebound around $0.646, momentum is limited, and the resistance level of the descending channel prevents all upward attempts, with the overall downward trend still clear.
Open contract volume has decreased, and the market is cautious.
The change in open contract volume further reflects market sentiment. As of the time of writing, open contracts have decreased by 3.92% to $420.8 million. This indicates that traders' willingness to maintain exposure has declined amid increasing downside risks.
The decrease in open contract volume usually indicates that traders are closing positions rather than buying on dips. This phenomenon, while reducing the likelihood of a sell-off in the short term, also signifies a lack of momentum to drive a rebound in the market. Traders need to see clearer directional signals before re-entering. This trend echoes a broader bearish sentiment, reinforcing expectations of short-term downward pressure.
Bears dominate, and bulls are under pressure.
Currently, the long-short ratio shows that the bear proportion has climbed to 58.35%, while bulls only account for 41.65%. The dominance of bears further strengthens the downward momentum and reduces the likelihood of an immediate trend reversal.
The liquidation data also shows a market bias towards bears: the losses suffered by bulls are larger, with a liquidation amount of $485,700, while bears only face $36,500. Frequent bull liquidations reflect an attempt by the market to buy on dips, but confidence is lacking. Smaller bear liquidations indicate that the downtrend is manageable, without excessive volatility.
Downward space is clear, and rebounds are limited.
Combining technical aspects, open contract volumes, short positions, and liquidation trends, ASTER's short-term outlook remains bearish. The descending channel and Fibonacci retracement lines indicate that before a meaningful recovery occurs, prices may dip to the range of $0.646 to $0.588.
Although the market may experience a temporary rebound, the overall structure favors sellers until buyers reclaim key price levels above the descending channel. Unless a decisive shift in market dynamics occurs, ASTER continues to face greater pressure in the short term.
Summary
The exit of whales, traders closing positions, and an increase in short positions further confirm ASTER's downward trend. In the short term, prices may continue to slide within the descending channel, with limited opportunities for temporary rebounds. Investors need to closely monitor key support and resistance levels; otherwise, the likelihood of a short-term recovery is low.
In summary, the market sentiment and technical aspects of ASTER lean towards bearishness. Unless strong buying emerges, downward pressure is unlikely to ease, and investors should proceed with caution.#巨鲸动向
