$ZEC
The crypto market is crazy tonight! With CPI and Japan's interest rate hike both exploding, who can save BTC from disaster? 一起聊聊呗！
Global macroeconomic bombs are going off! At 9:30 PM tonight, the U.S. CPI data will be released, followed by Japan's interest rate decision tomorrow. The crypto market, just catching its breath after dipping below 90,000 in November, is it to be saved or face another bloodbath? Understanding the core logic behind these two issues is crucial to avoid being taken advantage of!
First, let's talk about the U.S. CPI—this is the “life and death line” for the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts! The market is fixated on the 3% expectation; this number is the lifeline for the crypto market: if it falls below 3%, the expectations for interest rate cuts next year will surge, and the signal of dollar liquidity will cause risk assets like BTC to rebound instantly. Veteran players remember when the CPI was slightly lower than expected, BTC surged 7% in just one hour, but if inflation exceeds expectations and hits hard, the nightmare of a $2,500 drop in 15 minutes like in February 2025 could repeat itself. For the current fragile market, this is critical data akin to a life-saving injection.
Now, let's look at Japan's interest rate hike—this is the hidden “pump” in the background! The market anticipates a 98% chance of a hike to 0.75%, but what really affects sentiment is the governor's statement tomorrow afternoon. Global institutions and “Mrs. Watanabe” have been profiting from borrowing cheap yen to trade crypto, providing massive liquidity to the market. After two interest rate hikes in 2024, BTC dropped directly by 20-30% because profit-taking led to capital withdrawal. Although interest rate hike expectations have been digested, if the governor sends hawkish signals indicating more hikes next year, the crypto market may face another round of selling pressure. Conversely, if he turns dovish, it might trigger a short-term rebound.
Core conclusion: In the short term, fear Japan; in the long term, watch the U.S.! Japan's interest rate hike is a “short-term bomb,” with profit-taking potentially leading to a sudden crash; the U.S. CPI sets the “long-term direction”—only if it drops below 2.8% can we fundamentally reverse the sluggishness. Want to rely on a single event to save the market? Difficult! Unless CPI greatly exceeds expectations positively and the Bank of Japan turns dovish, the current market cannot withstand unilateral shocks.
Are you betting that tonight's CPI will break 3%? Will the Bank of Japan take a hawkish or dovish stance? Are you currently fully invested, cautiously observing, or liquidating to avoid risks? You might want to keep an eye on Musk-related concept puppies [p.u.p.p.i.e.s]!
