Ethereum (ETH) is likely to end December with a loss, marking the fourth consecutive month of decline. This could put pressure on large investors who have accumulated ETH this year.
If ETH continues to decline, these holders must choose whether to sell with little or no profit, or accept that they are making a loss.
How are Ethereum whales trapped between break-even and losses in December?
Data from the ETH Whale Unrealized Profit Ratio, which tracks addresses holding between 1,000 and more than 100,000 ETH, show a continuous decline over the last four months.
The ratio has dropped towards zero. This means that large ETH investors now have an average purchase price that is close to the current market price, leaving almost no unrealized profit.
From a positive perspective, the buying behavior of this group has a significant influence on market trends. It increases the confidence that the current price presents an opportunity. Continuing to accumulate at this level may indicate that this is a potential bottom zone for ETH buildup.
"They have not taken profits in this cycle and are further increasing their holdings. This means that the current price range presents an opportunity to buy ETH at the lowest possible price," stated CryptoQuant analyst CW8900.
Still, there is a bearish outlook. What happens if the market continues the downward trend of four months? In that case, whale investors would incur real losses. Two factors make this scenario possible.
Two factors are driving ETH whales to take action in December.
Firstly, the Ethereum Coinbase Premium Index turned negative in the third week of December.
This indicator measures the % difference between ETH prices on Coinbase Pro (USD) and Binance (USDT pair). A negative value indicates that the price is lower on Coinbase, reflecting selling pressure from American investors.
After filtering out noise with the 30-day exponential moving average (EMA), the index has remained negative for over a month. If selling pressure via Coinbase strengthens, the ETH price could decline further in the coming days.
The second factor is the declining retail interest. The on-chain activity of ETH reached its lowest level of the year in December.
The ETH Active Sending Addresses chart shows a clear decline. Network activity has cooled significantly. Without buying pressure from retail users, ETH struggles to break out alongside institutional demand.
"The lack of retail participation may limit the upward movement in the short term, as retail flows usually provide momentum during early rebounds," said CryptoOnchain.
Moreover, the realized price for ETH accumulation addresses is an important support level around $3,000. ETH is currently trading around $2,800 and seems poised to drop below this support.
These factors mean that whales may need to take action. Selling to recover invested funds or limit losses could increase downward pressure. This could even trigger a sell-off among institutions.
Despite these risks, a recent report from Bitwise remains positive for 2026. According to the report, the ETH price could reach a new all-time high faster than expected.
