$FTT One of the reasons why FTT continues to decline:

The probability of SBF being pardoned by Trump is very low, mainly influenced by the following factors:

1. The legal and political logic of the pardon

• Limitations on the pardon power: The President of the United States can pardon federal crimes (except impeachment cases), but must comply with the constitutional framework. SBF was sentenced to 25 years in prison for embezzling $8 billion in user funds, involving wire fraud, money laundering, and seven other felonies, which fall under federal jurisdiction and theoretically meet the conditions for a pardon.

• Trump's pardon preferences: Historical cases show that Trump tends to pardon political allies, supporters, or those with vested interests (such as pardoning Zhao Changpeng to attract funds from the cryptocurrency community, pardoning Blackwater personnel to protect military contractor interests). SBF has no public political ties to Trump, and his political donations have mostly gone to the Democratic Party (for example, he donated over $3 million to Democratic candidates in 2022), lacking motives for a pardon.

2. The uniqueness of the SBF case

• Severe social impact: The SBF case is referred to as "one of the largest financial fraud cases in American history," involving nearly a million users' asset losses, and the public is outraged by his crimes. A pardon could trigger a backlash in public opinion, damaging Trump's political image.

• Seriousness of the judicial process: SBF has been convicted and the judgment has taken effect, with the judge clearly stating his "lack of remorse." If a pardon is forcibly granted, it may be interpreted as interference in the judiciary, exacerbating public doubts about the fairness of the judicial system.

3. Analysis of practical feasibility

• Limited time window: If Trump pardons SBF during his term in 2025 or later, he needs to weigh the electoral pressure. The current cryptocurrency industry is in a period of tightening regulation, and pardoning a controversial figure may backfire.

• Alternative options exist: If SBF wants to shorten his sentence, he is more likely to do so through a sentence reduction mechanism (such as a 15% reduction for good behavior) or appeals, rather than relying on a pardon.

Conclusion

The probability of SBF being pardoned by Trump is less than 10%, unless the following extreme situations occur:

1. SBF reaches a deal with Trump through secret political donations or quid pro quo;

2. Trump needs to shape an "industry savior" image to promote policy shifts in the cryptocurrency sector;

3. The SBF case becomes politicized and is used as a tool for bipartisan struggle.

However, based on the current information, the above possibilities lack support. SBF is more likely to seek sentence reduction through regular judicial channels (such as appeals or good behavior).