The complete version is also shared, thanks to Wei Tuo for sharing ❤️

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Currently, there is a lack of performance from the opposing positions.

Good news brings opposing positions, and the market will liquidate the opposing positions.

Because the market lacks sustained capital to drive cryptocurrency prices.

Therefore, the crypto market is extremely sensitive.

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Assuming there are a large number of quantitative/market makers participating in the market now, but the prices are stable.

When good news appears,

First, event-driven institutions will chase longs.

Retail investors will lag behind the event-driven institutions and also chase longs.

However, the capital from good news is not continuous; event-driven institutions will quickly close positions, leading to market selling pressure. Retail investors act in a pulsed manner, not continuously.

This cannot bring in pricing-level capital inflow.

Therefore, short-term good news drives price volatility while also disrupting the original game relationship.

"Rebalancing" will bring about a reverse change in the market.

Thus, the more short-term good news there is, the easier it is to create a wedge.

With Christmas approaching, the entire market is heavily defensive, and capital is very conservative.

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When will the breakthrough happen?

A change in pricing levels or a real improvement in liquidity.

Here, we need to differentiate adjustments in liquidity management tools.

I believe everyone should still learn options to study arbitrage from a higher-level perspective.

Otherwise, I really suggest doing less watching and acting.

RV might be very important.

The speed of RV suppression actually reflects the current scale of institutions in the market.

As for directional judgment, I believe it is already lagging.

Of course, shorting is also more favorable.

Because retail investors see good news, they tend to go long.

When they see bad news, they do not tend to short/sell but will hold on.

These two are clearly unbalanced.