The Bank of Japan's 'gentle cut' officially closes the last gate of global liquidity
Did you think interest rate hikes were just a matter for the yen? Wrong. As the last economy to stick to negative interest rates, Japan officially changes course today; what is being raised is not the interest rate, but the coffin lid—nailing the final nail for over a decade of global excessive liquidity.
The core logic pierces two points:
'Consistent expectations' is the horror film: The bad news everyone has been waiting for is often not the end, but the starting point of a chain reaction. The Bank of Japan says, 'The monetary environment remains accommodative,' but their actions honestly start tightening. This means that all three major liquidity engines globally have shifted to contraction, and the 'cheap funds tide' that the crypto circle relies on is fully receding.
'Extremely low real interest rates' is a gentle trap: The more central banks emphasize 'still accommodative,' the more it shows they dare not scare the market, but once the tightening gears start, they will not easily stop.
Your USD is already shrinking in high interest rates, and now even the last safe-haven currency, the yen, is beginning to produce a 'money-sucking effect'; the trend of capital flowing back to the traditional financial system will only accelerate—while cryptocurrencies are always the 'risk assets' that get sold off first when liquidity withdraws.
What should players do now?
Immediately check leverage: Especially for leveraged positions secured by yen or low-interest currencies, financing costs have quietly risen.
Increase cash (USD) ratio: Don’t be lulled by words like 'gentle recovery'; when liquidity recedes, cash is king. Preserve ammunition and wait for the market to show panic-driven mispricing.
Pay attention to the 'siphon effect': Rising Japanese bond yields will attract global capital back to the Japanese bond market, triggering cross-market liquidity withdrawal. Closely track the correlation between BTC and the Nikkei, as well as US bond yields—the correlation may fluctuate sharply in the near term. #巨鲸动向 $ETH
