The Bitcoin spot ETF just threw out a little “surprise”—on December 18, Eastern Time, the total net outflow of the entire market directly hit 161 million USD! Many new traders saw this data and immediately panicked: “Is it going to crash?” “Is the money going to run away?” Don’t rush, don’t rush, I dug through the data and found that there are all sorts of “tricks” inside, not only should you not panic, but you can actually see the true cards of institutional funds! Today’s article is full of valuable insights, guiding you to clearly understand the flow of funds!
Let me highlight the key points for everyone: Yesterday’s net outflow was completely due to “structural differentiation,” not a collective retreat of the entire industry! Simply put, funds are “voting with their feet,” running out of some products and clustering into more reliable targets—this is a typical sign of the maturation of the crypto market, remember this conclusion, it will be on the test later!
First, let's look at the most exciting scene of 'Ice and Fire' - on one side, BlackRock's IBIT has taken up the 'money-absorbing banner' against the trend, with a net inflow of $32.7631 million in a single day, fighting its way through the overall market's net outflow environment! What's even more impressive is that IBIT's historical total net inflow has reached $62.665 billion! I've said it before, BlackRock, as a giant, has unmatched risk control and brand appeal; institutional funds trust this 'stabilizing pill'. This wave of contrarian capital absorption is completely within my expectations, following the classic script of 'the strong get stronger'.
On the other hand, Fidelity's FBTC is a bit 'tragic' - with a net outflow of $170 million in a single day, it directly became yesterday's 'net outflow champion'. Some may ask: 'Isn't Fidelity also quite strong? How did it suddenly get abandoned by funds?' To be honest, this wave of outflow for FBTC is most likely a 'portfolio rebalancing' operation rather than a loss of confidence in the asset itself. After all, its historical total net inflow is still $12.193 billion; a thin camel is bigger than a horse. However, the short-term funds voting with their feet also indicate that institutions are becoming increasingly picky, and we are no longer in the phase of 'blindly buying ETFs'.
Let me provide some hard facts for everyone to see the overall market landscape: as of the time of writing, the total net asset value of Bitcoin spot ETFs has reached $111.041 billion, and the ETF net asset ratio (the ratio of market value to total Bitcoin market value) has surged to 6.58%, with a historical cumulative net inflow of $57.565 billion. Here’s a note! Don't just panic over the single-day net outflow of $16.1 million; you should know that the entire ETF market has already surpassed $110 billion. A single-day outflow of this amount is just a 'small ripple' in the overall pool. Moreover, a 6.58% share means ETFs have become an indispensable 'ballast' in the Bitcoin market. The deep participation of institutional funds will only make the market more stable, not weaker.
Personally, I judge that the 'differentiation' in the Bitcoin spot ETF market will become increasingly evident. Products like IBIT, backed by giants, with good liquidity and strict risk control, will continue to siphon off market funds, becoming core allocations for institutions; while some products with slightly weaker competitiveness may face continued outflow pressure. For ordinary investors, don't blindly follow the trend to buy ETFs; prioritize selecting top assets and follow the direction of institutional funds for a much higher win rate - after all, institutions' research capabilities and capital size are much more reliable than our own random guesses.
Lastly, let me say something from the heart: the crypto market has always been a place where 'opportunities are hidden in the wind and waves'. Single-day capital fluctuations don't mean much; the key is to understand the underlying capital logic. I will keep a close watch on the fund flows of ETFs and the market dynamics of Bitcoin. Any changes will be broken down here at the first time. Follow me @链上标哥 to avoid getting lost!
