Friends, when you opened the chart this morning, didn't your heart tighten? The slide of Bitcoin from 89400 to 84500 in the early morning was indeed a bit thrilling. But as an old investor, I have to say that such a market makes me even more excited. Why? Because a real trend never ends just because of a washout. Below is my personal interpretation, no nonsense, let's get straight to the point.
1. Key position, the long and short have already revealed their hands
The drop late last night looked scary on the surface, but if you look closely, you'll find: the price suddenly 'hit the brakes' in the 86500-86000 range, and buying pressure clearly increased, quickly bouncing back to around 87000. What does this indicate? There is significant capital buying at this position, unwilling to let it drop further. So in my view, this is not a trend reversal, but a 'violent washout' targeting those who have leveraged too much during the rapid rise, specifically cleaning out the floating chips.
2. The indicator tells you that the bears may be losing strength.
Looking at the small time frame charts, both MACD and RSI have shown interesting signals indicating a decrease in bearish momentum, and there are signs of a bottom divergence. Simply put, even though the price has fallen, the 'strength' of the decline is actually weakening, similar to gasping for breath at the final sprint of a run. During such times, it's often easy to see short-term rebound golden cross signals. Of course, indicators are just aids; the key is still whether the price itself can hold steady at support.
3. My personal opinion and trading strategy.
I believe the medium-term structure is not bad; the price is still above the key moving averages, and the overall upward trend framework is still intact. Next, focus on two points: first, whether 87000 can become a new support platform, and second, whether the area between 87500 and 88000 can break through with volume. If it can, then the script of testing previous highs or even creating new highs is still valid.
My strategy is biased towards bullish, but I will never stubbornly resist.
Treat 86500-86000 as the boundary between long and short; as long as the price remains steady above this level, I will consider gradually positioning myself if it falls back and stabilizes.
The first target is around 88000. If it breaks through with volume, I will continue to hold for higher.
Risk warning: If the price breaks down below 86000 with volume (especially if it closes below), I will also adjust my thinking and avoid going against the market in a short-term weakening situation.
Finally, let's talk a bit about mindset.
The market is like the weather; it won't be sunny every day, but you know summer will always return with heat. Surviving in the market is more important than how much you earn in a single instance. Don't let a sudden drop in the early morning disturb your rhythm; look more at the positions and volume, and let emotions pull you less. If you find my thoughts helpful, don't forget to give me a follow.
