Dear cryptocurrency friends, I am Zhao Gongming. $UNI Suddenly a big bullish candlestick has appeared, are you excited again? Don't rush, calm down first. Follow Zhao Gongming, and I'll help you see clearly whether this wave of increase is an opportunity or a trap.
News: Behind the positive news, the main funds have already laid out their positions in advance.
The most explosive news today is that Uniswap's proposal to "burn 100 million UNI" has entered the final voting phase. This is indeed a long-term positive, but smart money has already taken action. On-chain data shows that the largest short has already closed 40% of their short positions in advance, which indicates that the shorts are scared, and also suggests that someone is quietly adjusting their positions amid market sentiment.
Look at the capital flow: In the 4-hour and 8-hour cycles, spot capital continues to flow in, especially nearly 60 million USD in the 8-hour period. What does this indicate? Large funds are accumulating at low prices before or just after the news is released. They are not retail investors and will not wait for the price to rise before chasing it. However, contract capital fluctuates greatly in the short term, indicating that the long-short game is heating up — the main force may be shaking the market using retail investors' 'FOMO emotions' rather than directly pushing prices up.
Technical analysis: Key positions determine future direction.
Looking at the 1-hour chart, UNI is still in a downward trend overall, but has been forcefully pulled into a rebound by news. The current position is very delicate:
Resistance above: 5.25 (key psychological level), 5.4 (strong resistance, previous high area)
Support below: 4.98 (intraday lifeline), 4.85 (trend support level)
Technical indicators show 'strong buy'. MACD has golden cross above the 0 axis, and it is indeed strong in the short term. But remember, this is only at the 1-hour level. Daily and weekly charts have not yet reversed. This indicates that the rebound is driven by news, not a trend reversal.
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Zhao Gongming's views and operational suggestions.
Zhao Gongming believes that before the voting results are clear, UNI will fluctuate between 4.98-5.4. The probability of a direct breakthrough or breakdown is low, but volatility will increase.
If you have long positions at low prices: Congratulations, it is recommended to gradually reduce positions in the 5.25-5.4 area, as positive news may be accompanied by a pullback.
If you are in cash and want to enter the market: Don't chase the highs! Two strategies are safer: First, wait for a pullback to around 5.0-4.98 to try a small long position; second, try a small short position in the 5.15-5.25 range. Remember, use small positions to test the waters; do not go heavy before the trend is clear.
Key action points: Stay above 5.25, look to 5.4; if it falls below 4.98, beware of dropping to 4.85.
The market always buries mines in good news. The main force never makes it easy for retail investors to make money. If you are also tired of being cut back and forth by news and fluctuations, feel free to follow Zhao Gongming. I will share the main capital trends and order signals in the chat room to help you avoid those seemingly opportunistic traps.
